Table Of ContentUlrich Blum and Josef Schmid (Eds.)
Demographic Processes,
Occupation and
Technological Change
Symposium held at the University of Bamberg
from 17th to 18th November 1989
With 43 Figures
Physica-Verlag Heidelberg
Professor Dr. Ulrich Blum
Professor Dr. Josef Schmid
University of Bamberg
B.P.1549
D-8600 Bamberg
ISBN 978-3-7908-0528-4 ISBN 978-3-642-51550-7 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-51550-7
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction VII
U. Blum, J. Schmid
Opening Address XI
P.M. Schmidhuber
"The Great Divide"; On Demographic Trends in the EEC 1
D.J. van de Kaa
Foreigners in the Countries of the European Community 25
Recent Developments and Future Trends
U. Mammey
European Employment: Changes in Structure and Quality 38
R.M. Lindley
Demographic Development and the Labour Market - 52
German and European Perspectives
F. Buttler
Population Development in Greece 70
According to new Data on Fertility
G. N. TziaJetas
Technological Change in Manufacturing: Responses 91
of Personnel Management in a Spatial Perspective
S. Wagenaar, E. Wever
New Concepts of Measuring Technological Change 104
K. Koschatzky
Addresses 122
INTRODUCfION
This conference was dedicated to the description, analysis and evaluation of
demographic developments, especially to the long-term reduction in population size and
the concomitant ageing of the labour force stemming from birth rates below the
generational replacement level, in the countries of the European Community. Today, it
is already predictable that these developments are bound to have repercussions on
occupations and technological changes, although the recent developments in the East
have partly postponed, partly reinforced these trends.
The drastic changes resulting from an ageing population have already been widely
discussed with respect to the social security system, the maintaining of infrastructure,
health services and the educational system, however, the direct and indirect effects on
technological change and the resulting efforts to preserve one's economic position in the
international competition have hardly been mentioned, thus far. In this context the
Bamberg Symposium focussed on topics such as the question to what extent innovations
depend on the social environment or the regional economic position, and how to
adequately measure technological performance.
Prof. van de Kaa showed that there is a uniform tendency in the reduction of birth
rates in Western and Northern Europe which is strongest in the Federal Republic of
Germany and Italy, and leads to a reduction and ageing of these populations. Possible
future development paths include the disengagement of individuals from family life,
new competition from friendship networks, combinations of roles as the form and the
rhythm of work changes due to technological change; tensions stemming from the
necessity of adaption processes and different ways of burden sharing.
Even Greece can be regarded as an accelerated model of the trend described
above. According to Prof. Dr. Tziafetas, Greece gradually falls in line with the other
member states in respect to a rapid decline in fertility and a likely doubling of the share
of old people, thus losing its traditional role as an emigration country.
Dr. Mammey stressed that migration is subject to the concentration of new
technologies. Although companies are in most cases more mobile than labour,
VIII
immigration into the European Community from the outside must be assumed, whereas
no considerable migration within the countries of the European Community will occur in
the coming decade.
Prof. Dr. Buttler demonstrated that the employment potential in Germany will fall
in the Nineties; unification or immigration from Eastern countries will only postpone
this. A policy to slow down the reduction of the employment potential will show only
limited effects. The demographic wave that presently favours the labour market will
slow down and fade totally in the Nineties; the mobilization of women for the labour
market is a real opportunity because of their low participation rate in West Germany.
However, an increase in female employment can already be seen, today. The last option,
after having exhausted these possibilities, will be a technological and economic offensive
in order to compensate for the declining and ageing employment potential, provided
Europe, and especially the Federal Republic of Germany, want to maintain their social
standards.
Prof. Dr. Lindley discussed the demand side of the future technological-industrial
Europe. Today, we already find a recession in the demand for low-qualified labour in
the industrial sector paralleled by a simultaneous rise in the demand for higher academic
qualifications. The demand for labour will especially increase in the tertiary sector, with
a specific stress on production-oriented applications. Even though the government holds
an important position in tertiary activities, for instance in health services, and has
contributed to an increase in employment, it can be reasonably assumed that it will -
from a total perspective - hinder the development of the tertiarization of the society.
Because of the interrelationship between employment, work contents and qualification,
the problem of overqualification at the lower end of the employment spectrum exists
especially for women. The increasing necessity to higher qualify the labour force causes
pressure to externalize the costs; i.e., a possible rising vote of the public sector.
Prof. Wever and Dr. Wagenaar emphasized that in the short run the ability of an
economy to innovate is more closely related to human capital than to accessible
technologies. This links technological changes in an indirect way to the demographic
component, as the transition from the educational sector to the employment sector will
continuously slow down in volume, starting at the end of the Nineties. The integration of
"blue- and white-collar" labour and the utilization of more than just one qualification
(anti-Taylorism) will liberate considerable productivity reserves, and eventually
overcompensate existing economies of scale. If in the development of enterprises other
trends are accounted for, especially the decentralization of headquarters, the reduction
IX
in company slack, the sale of those divisions that are not directly related to the
production of the very good and single sourcing versus global sourcing, a completely new
spatial pattern for firm settlements may evolve. In the long run, differences among
functions held by enterprises located in the center and those held by firms in the
periphery will decrease. Attractive possibilities for new industrial locations, the
acquisition of enterprises and the development of new firm organizations in the
European Community will emerge. The distribution of the work force and its
qualifications will have an increasing impact on those decisions in the future.
Problems related to the operationalization of the technological position of a
country in respect to other countries were discussed by Dr. Koschatzky. From an
analytical view, the relationship between demographic processes, the employment
system and technological changes and innovations necessitates the definition and
operationalization of the latter terms. However, the term innovation is often used in an
ambiguous way. Innovations are not necessarily the result of an advanced techonolgical
position of a country. Europe is an excellent example for having a brilliant technological
position which did not lead to economic success. In this sense, the analysis of markets,
especially the study of foreign trade data concerning technological intensive products,
and the definition of the technological profile of a country, both shown in this paper,
may partly solve the problem.
An unavoidable shortage in the work force is foreseeable. The rising potential of
unskilled and low-qualified labour will ultimately give rise to a more costly formation of
human capital. There are considerable doubts whether problems in production and
employment can solely be overcome by migration processes. The increasing demand for
higher qualified ("white- collar") employees will encourage non-European immigration
into highly-qualified positions or into the tertiary sector. Within the EEC countries,
migration movements of selected segments of the population are likely.
The ability to compensate for the ageing process and the decline in the work force
by increasing labour participation is limited. The effect is twofold: on one hand, the
transition of technologies from the educational system to enterprises and the public
sector will become apparent. On the other hand -as a consequence -human capital will
age and require additional investment to upgrade the eductaional system. Technological
leadership is not a guarantee for economic excellence, in terms of the ability to innovate.
The necessary societal environment may also be threatened by ageing processes.
x
As de~ographic processes and employment on one side and the economic and
technological future on the other side are becoming increasingly interwoven, this
conference in Bamberg had a pioneering character. We therefore thank the European
Communities which sponsored this endeavour. We are indebted to Dipl.-Wirtschaftsing.
Jan Siegmund and Ulrike Schafer, MBA, who carefully prepared this volume. Thank
you to all participants who have enriched our kownledge on this topic.
Bamberg, July 1990
Ulrich c.H. Blum
Josef Schmid
OPENING ADDRESS
Peter M. Schmidhuber,
Member of the Commission of the European Community
Ladies and Gentleman,
In the course of the next day and half the papers which you will hear and
the discussions which you will have will touch upon some of the major
determinants of the economic and social fabric of Europe. The strength of the
link between demographic trend and economic performance was perhaps most
baldly stated by the British Prime Minister Sir Winston Churchill, when he
commented that, "a nation can find no better investment than putting milk into
babies". Without encroaching too far upon the territory to be covered by the
impressive list of speakers, I should nonetheless like to offer by way of
introduction some personal reflections.
Predictions of the United Nations suggest that in the course of the forty
years from 1986 to 2025 the population of the present twelve member states of
the European Community will decrease slightly from 324 million to 318 million.
Over the same period the percentage of the population over 55 years old will
increase from 13,4 % to 20,3 %. This ageing of the Community's population will
profoundly influence the economic challenges with which we are confronted. It
is clear that, ceteris paribus, it will result in a corresponding decrease in the
percentage of the popUlation which is economically active. The.latter reduced
percentage will have a consequently greater burden to carry in the form of
pensions, health costs etc. Furthermore, this burden would become yet greater
should there be an increase in the birth rate in Europe, thus adding further to
the economically dependent part of the population.
In stark contrast to this the United Nations figures for the population of
the world as a whole over the period 1985 to 2025 show an increase from 4.5
billion to 8.2 billion. Underlying these figures are dramatically high rates of
population growth in the less developed countries and in the newly
industrialized countries. These trends will lead to a completely different set of
economic challenges, in particular to problems of unemployment and of
training.
Such trends on their own may be expected to lead to a widening of the gap
in income per capita between the developed world and the less developed
world.
XII
Technological progress can contribute to the widening of this gap by
reducing the general labour constraint to further economic development in the
industrialized world. However, this does not rule out the possibility of specific
shortages resulting from the requirements for ever more skilled labour to work
with new technologies. The future shape of the world economy will be decisively
influenced by the succes of the industrialized world in achieving higher
productivity through the development of new technologies compared with the
success of the developing world in achieving economic growth by the adoption
of existing technologies.
It is clear that at both Community and world level the resolution of the
problems resulting from demographic trends and technical changes will be one
of the major challenges of the 21st century. I therefore wish the present
symposium, dealing as it does with such important themes, every success.
