Containing Missile Proliferation: Strategic Technology, Security Regimes, and International Cooperation in Arms Control

265 Pages·2003·17.44 MB·English

by  Dinshaw Mistry

CONTAINING MISSILE PROLIFERATION

Containing Missile
Proliferation
Strategic Technology, Security Regimes,
and International Cooperation
in Arms Control
DINSHAW MISTRY
UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON PRESS
Seattle and London
Copyright © 2003 by the University of Washington Press
Printed in the United States of America
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or
transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical,
including photocopy, recording, or any information storage or retrieval
system, without permission in writing from the publisher.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Mistry, Dinshaw.
Containing missile proliferation : strategic technology, security
regimes, and international cooperation in arms control / Dinshaw Mistry.
p. cm.
Includes index.
ISBN 0-295-98294-2 (alk. paper)
I. Arms control. 2. Ballistic missiles. I. Title.
JZ5665 .M57 2003
327. I '743-dc2 I
2002035697
The paper used in this publication is acid-free and recycled from
10 percent post-consumer and at least 50 percent pre-consumer waste.
It meets the minimum requirements of American National Standard for
Information Sciences-Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials,
ANSI Z39-48-1984.
CONTENTS
Preface vii
Abbreviations ix
1 Introduction 3
2 Regimes, Technology, Politics, and Proliferation IS
3 Building a Supply-Side Regime 41
4 Argentina, Brazil, South Africa 74
5 South Korea, Taiwan, Arab States 89
6 Israel, India, Pakistan J09
7 North Korea and Iran 128
8 Toward a Treaty Regime 152
9 Conclusions 182
Appendix: Technical Notes on Missiles 199
Notes 202
Index 248
v
TABLES
I. I The Global Inventory of Ballistic Missiles, 200 I 10-II
2.1 Security, Economic, and Environmental Regimes 16
2.2 The Missile, Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Nonproliferation
Regimes 18
2.3 Military Impairment Export Controls 24
2.4 National Economic and Industrial Data 27
2.5 National Technological Capability for Missile Manufacture 28
2.6 Factors Influencing National Missile Outcomes 34-35
3.1 MTCR Membership by Year 66
3.2 U.S. Missile Nonproliferation Sanctions 72
8.1 A Comparative Study of Eight Space Programs 169
8.2 The Architecture for a Missile Nonproliferation Regime 175
9.1 Calculating MTCR Effectiveness 185
AI Technical Data for Selected Ballistic Missiles 200
VI
PREFACE
T
his is a study of international efforts to contain the proliferation of a partic
ularly deadly military technology-long-range ballistic missiles. Ballistic
missiles enable states to rapidly deliver weapons of mass destruction over vast
distances. Missile proliferation is therefore among the foremost concerns on the
international security agenda. When faced with mutual challenges and concerns,
states often coordinate their national policy responses through multilateral
regimes. International regimes deal with a wide spectrum of issues ranging from
interstate trade and commerce to environmental management to the control of
armaments. Drawing upon well-established frameworks of international coop
eration and regimes, this study examines multilateral responses to the challenge
of missile proliferation. The study critically examines how well key technology
suppliers such as Western states, Russia, and China have complied with the Missile
Technology Control Regime (MTCR); it explores the missile programs of major
regional powers-Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, South Korea, Taiwan, Egypt,
Syria, Iraq, Israel, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Iran; and it outlines five prac
tical ways to strengthen the MTCR and better contain missile proliferation.
Such a study adds to cooperation theory by highlighting how cooperative
regimes can be attained on particularly tough military security issues. It also
provides a valuable policy blueprint on how regimes may tackle the missile threat
and offer crucial safety nets if missile defense falls short.
This book had its origins in my 1999 doctoral thesis, sections of which
appeared in Contemporary Security Policy and Security Studies, and in con
ference papers presented to policy-makers developing the MTCR's Code of Con
duct and other missile nonproliferation initiatives. This study was supported by
fellowships from the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs (BCSIA)
at Harvard University; the Center for International Security and Cooperation
(CISAC) at Stanford University; and the Program in Arms Control, Disarmament,
and International Security (ACDIS) and Department of Political Science at the
University of Illinois. I am particularly grateful for their support, and also thank
Stephen Cohen, Paul Diehl, Edward Kolodziej, Scott Sagan, Lynn Eden, Rich
ard Speier, Aaron Karp, Evan Medeiros, Steven Miller, John Garofano, Sean
Lynn Jones, John Reppert, Michael Barletta, and many friends and colleagues
at BCSIA, CISAC, ACDIS, Cincinnati, and Brookings for insightful comments and
Vll
assistance that greatly enhanced this study. This book also owes intellectual debts
to a select group of missile experts whose writings on missile proliferation made
my own research much easier and are extensively cited in the following pages.
Finally, I thank Michael Duckworth, Marilyn Trueblood, Leila Charbonneau,
and the University of Washington Press for their assistance with the publica
tion of this study.
ABBREVIATIONS
ABM: antiballistic missile, Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty
ACDA: Arms Control and Disannament Agency
ADD: Agency for Defense Development
BWC: Biological Weapons Convention
CA T: Conventional Arms Transfer
CBMS: Confidence-building measures
COSTIND: Commission on Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense
cwc: Chemical Weapons Convention
DPRK: Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea)
DRDO: Defense Research and Development Organization
ESA: European Space Agency
FMCT: Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty
GCS: Global Control System
IAEA: International Atomic Energy Agency
INF: Intermediate Nuclear Force Treaty
ICBM: intercontinental ballistic missile
IRBM: intermediate-range ballistic missile
MIRV: multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle
MTCR: Missile Technology Control Regime
NBC: nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons
NMD: national missile defense
NPT: Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty
NSG: Nuclear Suppliers Group
ROK: Republic of Korea (South Korea)
IX