By Anne Case and Angus Deaton David Cutler Harvard University

25 Pages·2017·0.7 MB·English

by  David Cutler

“Mortality and Morbidity in the 21st Century”
By Anne Case and Angus Deaton
David Cutler
Harvard University
One of the most important epidemiological and
economic facts of our time
• Rising mortality for non-Hispanic whites
– Especially prime age, lower SES
– Absolute, and in relationship to other countries.
• Change has occurred over a long period of time
• Implications for Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security,
DI, and other policies
– Is now the right time to take away health insurance
coverage from low income whites?
A few points
• The effect is much greater for the working age
population.
• The Durkheim theory of deaths: performance
relative to expectations. Hard to tell.
• The ability to translate pain into death has
accelerated.
Share of People Surviving from 40 to
60
93%
92%
91%
90%
89%
88%
87%
86%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
International Comparison of Life
Expectancy at Age 65
Life Expectancy for Entire Population
22
21
20
5 US
6

e
19
g
A

t
A
e 18
f
i
L

f
o
17
s
r
a
e
Y
16
15
14
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
International Comparison of Life
Expectancy at Age 65
Life Expectancy for Entire Population
22
France
21
Canada
Sweden
20 Austria
5 US
6

e
19
g
A

t
A
e 18
f
iL UK

f
o
17
s
r
a
e
Y
16
15
14
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Cohort or Year Effects?
Relative Mortality by Cohort, Non-Hispanic Whites
1.15
1.10
)
1
=
9 1.05
9
9 40-44
1
(
1.00
y
t
i
l
a
t
ro 0.95
M

e
v
i 0.90
t
a
l
e
R
0.85
0.80
0.75
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Cohort or Year Effects?
Relative Mortality by Cohort, Non-Hispanic Whites
1.15
1.10
)
1
= 45-49
9 1.05
9
9 40-44
1
(
1.00
y
t
i
l
a
t
ro 0.95
M

e
v
i 0.90
t
a
l
e
R
0.85
0.80
0.75
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Cohort or Year Effects?
Relative Mortality by Cohort, Non-Hispanic Whites
1.15
50-54
1.10
)
1
= 45-49
9 1.05
9
9 40-44
1
(
1.00
y
t
i
l
a
t
ro 0.95
M

e
v
i 0.90
t
a
l
e
R
0.85
0.80
0.75
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Cohort or Year Effects?
Relative Mortality by Cohort, Non-Hispanic Whites
1.15
50-54
1.10
)
1
= 45-49
9 1.05
9
9 40-44
1
(
1.00
y
t
i
l
a
t 55-59
ro 0.95
M

e
v
i 0.90
t
a
l
e
R
0.85
0.80
0.75
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015