Blindside: How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics

207 Pages·2007·2.18 MB·English

by  Francis Fukuyama

H
O
w
A T
nT O
I
F c
O I
R p
A cI AT
I nD ng E
n wI Ev
g l E
l D n
O c T
bA AR s
F l D
RA pO s
N lI
E CI TI
DI S F cs
T U
O K
R U
Y
A
M
A
2990-7 ch0 frontmatter 7/23/07 12:05 PM Page i
BLINDSIDE
2990-7 ch0 frontmatter 7/23/07 12:05 PM Page ii
2990-7 ch0 frontmatter 7/23/07 12:05 PM Page iii
BLINDSIDE
How to Anticipate
Forcing Events and Wild Cards
in Global Politics
Francis Fukuyama, editor
AnAmerican InterestBook
brookings institution press
Washington,D.C.
2990-7 ch0 frontmatter 7/23/07 12:05 PM Page iv
Copyright © 2007
the american interest
Blindside: How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics
may be ordered from:
brookings institution press
c/o HFS,P.O.Box 50370,Baltimore,MD 21211-4370,
Tel.:[phone];Fax:[phone]
Internet:www.brookings.edu
All rights reserved.No part ofthis publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any
form or by any means without permission in writing from the Brookings Institution Press.
Library ofCongress Cataloging-in-Publication data
Blindside :how to anticipate forcing events and wild cards in global politics / Francis
Fukuyama,editor.
p. cm.
“An American Interest Book.”
Summary:“Focuses on developing analytical tools to anticipate and manage low-
probability events.Addresses psychological and institutional obstacles preventing planning
for low-probability tragedies and allocating necessary resources.Pinpoints failures—
institutional and personal—that allowed events to surprise leaders and examines
philosophies and methodologies offorecasting.Discusses low-probability,high-impact
contingencies in various sectors”—Provided by publisher.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN-13:978-0-8157-2990-7 (cloth :alk.paper)
ISBN-10:0-8157-2990-1 (cloth :alk.paper)
1. Emergency management—United States.2. International relations. I.Fukuyama,
Francis.II.Title.
HV551.3.B57 2007
363.34'7—dc22 2007027757
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Printed on acid-free paper
Typeset in Minion
Composition by Peter Lindeman
Arlington,Virginia
Printed by R.R.Donnelley
Harrisonburg,Virginia
2990-7 ch0 frontmatter 7/23/07 12:05 PM Page v
Contents
1 The Challenges of Uncertainty:An Introduction 1
Francis Fukuyama
2 Thinking about Catastrophe 7
Richard A.Posner
Part I.Cases: Looking Back
3 Slow Surprise:The Dynamics of Technology Synergy 23
David Landes
4 U.S.Intelligence Estimates of Soviet Collapse:
Reality and Perception 29
Bruce Berkowitz
5 Econoshocks:The East Asian Crisis Case 42
David Hale
Part II.Cases: Looking Ahead
6 The Once and Future DARPA 57
William B.Bonvillian
v
2990-7 ch0 frontmatter 7/23/07 12:05 PM Page vi
vi contents
7 Fueled Again? In Search of Energy Security 71
Gal Luft and Anne Korin
8 Emerging Infectious Diseases:Are We Prepared? 82
Scott Barrett
Part III.Forecasting
9 Ahead of the Curve:Anticipating Strategic Surprise 93
Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall
10 Can Scenarios Help Policymakers
Be Both Bold and Careful? 109
Robert Lempert
11 Innovation and Adaptation:IT Examples 120
M.Mitchell Waldrop
Part IV.What Could Be
12 Cassandra versus Pollyanna 129
A Debate between James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook
13 Global Discontinuities 143
A Discussion with Owen Harries,Itamar Rabinovich,
Niall Ferguson,and Scott Barrett
14 American Scenarios 153
A Discussion with Walter Russell Mead,Eliot Cohen,
Ruth Wedgwood,Anne Applebaum,Bernard-Henri Lévy,
JosefJoffe,Peter Schwartz,and Francis Fukuyama
15 Afterword 169
Francis Fukuyama
Notes 173
Contributors 181
Index 183
2990-7 ch0 frontmatter 7/23/07 12:05 PM Page vii
BLINDSIDE
2990-7 ch0 frontmatter 7/23/07 12:05 PM Page viii
2990-7 ch01 fukuyama 8/8/07 2:12 PM Page 1
1
The Challenges of Uncertainty:
An Introduction
Francis Fukuyama
T
he collapse ofcommunism,the rapid emergence ofChina and India
as major economic powers,the September 11 attacks,the appearance ofrela-
tively new diseases like HIV/AIDS and H5N1 bird flu,Hurricane Katrina—the
past decade and a half has demonstrated that nothing is as certain as uncer-
tainty in global politics.As the famous scatological bumper sticker suggests,
bad things happen.But there are benign surprises as well,and these,no less
than catastrophic events,challenge society’s capacity to understand,to adapt,
and to lock in good fortune.
Anticipating and dealing with what were thought to have been very low-
probability events have clearly become central challenges for policymakers in
public and private sectors alike all over the world.This book,sponsored by The
American Interestmagazine,addresses those challenges.The magazine’s first
annual event,held in Washington,D.C.,in May 2006,brought together ana-
lysts,practitioners,policymakers,and unconventional thinkers from a variety
of backgrounds and disciplines. The magazine assembled those who think
about discrete uncertainties and who also have considered the very nature of
uncertainty itself.The distinction may seem a minor one,but it is not.Many
people,from intelligence analysts to investment bankers to corporate treasur-
ers, are paid to think about discrete futures in their areas of professional
responsibility. But far fewer people have ever tried to understand why the
future is inherently difficult to anticipate,and how to mitigate our blindness
1