2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years

398 Pages·2012·6.31 MB·English

by  Jorgen Randers

Praise for 2052
“This thoughtful and thought-provoking book will be inspiring, and challenging,
for all who really care about our common future.”
—Gro Harlem Brundtland,
former prime minister of Norway; leader,
World Commission on Environment and Development “It’s too late to wonder
how different and refreshingly breathable the world would be if everyone had
listened hard to Jorgen Randers forty years ago. The question now is if we’ll
heed him this time. Here’s our chance. Please seize it, everyone.”
—Alan Weisman,
author of The World Without Us and Gaviotas “A sober, cogent, and courageous
assessment of a future not dictated by fate, or economics, or limits to technology,
but by the most egregious leadership failure in history. But there is still time to
change course . . . just enough time and no more.”
—David W. Orr, Oberlin College,
author of Down to the Wire: Confronting Climate Collapse “This is an
extraordinary and profoundly important book. Randers’ mastery of many fields
is impressive, and he presents his ‘best guess’ future with clarity and force. As a
result, he provides a challenging template against which we can judge our own
expectations for midcentury.”
—James Gustave Speth,
author of America the Possible
“Read 2052 and get the views of a great futurist—one with a fine track record of
being right.”
—Paul R. Ehrlich,
author of The Dominant Animal
“An unconventional and lucid explanation of the likely macroeconomic
developments of the world over the next forty years.”
—Lord Nicholas Stern,
author of The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change;
chair, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change
and the Environment, London School of Economics “With clarity, conscience,
and courage, global-systems pioneer Jorgen Randers and his distinguished
contributors map the forces that will shape the next four decades. Their sobering
but far from despairing insights will encourage all who strive in applied hope to
build a society worthy of nature’s legacy and humans’ potential.”
—Amory B. Lovins,
chairman and chief scientist, Rocky Mountain Institute;
senior author, Reinventing Fire; coauthor, Natural Capitalism

Copyright © 2012 by Jorgen Randers.
All rights reserved.

Unless otherwise noted, all illustrations copyright © 2012 by Jorgen Randers.

No part of this book may be transmitted or reproduced in any form by any means without permission in
writing from the publisher.

Editor: Joni Praded
Project Manager: Patricia Stone
Copy Editor: Cannon Labrie
Proofreader: Nancy Ringer
Indexer: Margaret Holloway
Designer: Melissa Jacobson

Printed in the United States of America
First printing May, 2012
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 12 13 14 15 16

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®
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Randers, Jorgen.
2052 : a global forecast for the next forty years / Jorgen Randers.
p. cm.
“A Report to the Club of Rome Commemorating the 40th Anniversary of The
Limits to Growth.”
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-1-60358-467-8 (hardcover) — ISBN 978-1-60358-421-0 (pbk.) — ISBN 978-1-60358-422-7
(ebook) 1. Economic history—21st century. 2. Economic forecasting. I. Title.

HC59.3.R36 2012
330.9001’12--dc23
2012012065
Chelsea Green Publishing
85 North Main Street, Suite 120
White River Junction, VT 05001
[phone]
www.chelseagreen.com
For my children and grandchildren
CONTENTS
Acknowledgments
Preface: What Will the Future Bring?
PART 1: BACKGROUND
1 Worrying about the Future
Why Now?
Is a Forecast Possible?
Why Forty Years?
Bases for an Educated Guess
Full Steam Ahead with a Peaceful Mind
2 Five Big Issues toward 2052
The Sustainability Revolution
Five Central Issues Involving System Change
The End of Capitalism?
Glimpse 2-1: The Dark Decades: Privilege and Polarization
The End of Economic Growth?
Glimpse 2-2: Constraining Asian Consumption
The End of Slow Democracy?
Glimpse 2-3: Shuffling toward Sustainability
The End of Generational Harmony?
Glimpse 2-4: Intergenerational War for Equity
The End of Stable Climate?
Glimpse 2-5: Extreme Weather in 2052
PART 2: MY GLOBAL FORECAST
3 The Logic behind My Forecast
The Guiding Star
A Broad-Brush Picture
A Brief Summary of My Story
The Deterministic Backbone
Linear Presentation of a Circular Maze
The Mathematical Formulation
A Final Note on the Data Base
4 Population and Consumption to 2052
Population Will Peak
Workforce Will Peak a Little Earlier
Productivity Will Grow, but Meet Obstacles
Production (GDP) Will Grow, but More and More Slowly
Glimpse 4-1: The End of Uneconomic Growth
Investments—Forced and Voluntary—Will Increase
New Costs Will Emerge
Adaptation and Disaster Costs Will Explode
The State Will Get More Involved
Glimpse 4-2: Light Green Growth
Consumption Will Stagnate—and Fall in Some Places
5 Energy and CO to 2052
2
Energy Efficiency Will Continue to Rise
Energy Use Will Grow, but Not Forever
Climate Intensity Will Be Reduced by Renewables
Glimpse 5-1: The Road to PV
Glimpse 5-2: The Death of Nuclear
CO Emissions from Energy Will Peak in 2030
2
Temperature Increase Will Exceed Plus 2°C
Plus 2°C Will Cause Real Difficulties
Glimpse 5-3: Troubled Arctic Waters
Glimpse 5-4: The Flight to the City
6 Food and Footprint to 2052
Food Production Will Satisfy Reduced Demand
Biofuels and White Meat Will Advance
Glimpse 6-1: Expensive Oil = Expensive Food
Glimpse 6-2: The Limits to Protein
Commercial Fish Stocks Will Be Confined to Regulated Fisheries
Planetary Ecosystems Will Suffer
Glimpse 6-3: The Race to Lose Last
Unused Bio-capacity Will Plunge
Glimpse 6-4: Urban Mining of Metals
Glimpse 6-5: Nature Limited to Parks
7 The Nonmaterial Future to 2052
Smaller GDP: Milder Push against Global Limits
Slower Growth in Productivity
Tensions from Declining Consumption
Prevalence of Short-Termism
Stronger Government
Forced Redistribution
Megacity Environment
Glimpse 7-1: Megacity Living and Externalization of the Mind
Omnipresent Internet
Disappearing Charms
Better Health
Glimpse 7-2: Individual Health from Public Care
Armed Forces Fighting New Threats
Glimpse 7-3: The Future of War and the Rise of Robots
Glimpse 7-4: Military for Sustainability
8 The Zeitgeist in 2052
Fragmentation: More Focus on Local Solutions
Glimpse 8-1: Scotland Joins New Europe
Glimpse 8-2: The End of Mediterranean Disparity
Glimpse 8-3: Slum Urbanism in Africa
A New Paradigm: Less Fixation with Economic Growth
Glimpse 8-4: Valuing the Whole
Modified Capitalism: A Stronger Role for Wise Government
Glimpse 8-5: Systemic CSR, or CSR 2.0
Collective Creativity: A Web of Inspired Individuals
Glimpse 8-6: Harnessing the Wisdom of the Crowd
Glimpse 8-7: Peak Youth Gaming for the Public Good
Intergenerational Equity: Widening the Lens
PART 3: ANALYSIS
9 Reflections on the Future
The Main Drivers
The Future in Graphs
The Cliff-Hanger
My Own Reactions
Eight Straight Questions about the Future
Wild Cards
The Path to 2052
Glimpse 9-1: Sudden Rush to Solar
Glimpse 9-2: Financing the Future
10 Five Regional Futures
Toward 2052: The United States
Glimpse 10-1: Bright Solar Future
Toward 2052: China
Glimpse 10-2: China—the New Hegemon
Toward 2052: OECD-less-US
Toward 2052: BRISE
Glimpse 10-3: Rich on Biofuels
Toward 2052: Rest of the World
11 Comparison with Other Futures
Testing against a Global Computer Model
Comparison with The Limits to Growth Studies
Overshoot and Collapse in Some Detail
Perspectives on the Second Half of the Twenty-First Century
Glimpse 11-1: The Fifth Cultural Step
Glimpse 11-2: The Third Flowering of the Tree of Life
12 What Should You Do?