Wargaming for Leaders: Strategic Decision Making from the Bawargaming for Leaders: Strategic Decision Making from the Battlefield to the Boardroom Ttlefield to the Boardroom

289 Pages·2008·5.632 MB·English

by  Mark L. Herman, Mark D. Frost, Robert Kurz

Praise forWargaming forLeaders
“The simulation on HIV/AIDS exceeded all our expectations . . . [and]
resulted in some very innovative partnerships. I was deeply impressed by
the energy and commitment of the participants, who came from four
continents and included people from China. The outcome was the com-
mitment to try to collaborate in innovative ways, building on the expert-
ise of each sector. This sort of creative thinking could pave the way for
genuine progress in reversing this terrible epidemic. . . . We hope to try
to repeat the simulation model in other countries with emerging epi-
demics, such as China and Eastern Europe, as well as in Africa.”
—Richard C. Holbrooke,
president and CEO of the Global Business Coalition
on HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria; former U.S.
ambassador to the United Nations
“Fascinating stuff. These wargaming techniques allow participants to
develop scenarios that can lead to unexpected and remarkable outcomes.
The wargames described in this book, particularly those on national
security and energy issues, often suggest a future no one could have imag-
ined in advance. Public policymakers should take note.”
—New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson,
former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations; former
U.S. Secretary of Energy
“Over the past several years, I have personally participated in several
wargames to find solutions to the health challenges facing our country.
These simulations can accomplish in a day or two the kind of practical
problem solving and consensus building that too often takes months or even
years. If your organization hasn’t put these methods to work, you should.”
—Newt Gingrich,
former speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives;
founder of the Center for Health Transformation
“As a warfighter and a military commander, I know the importance of
using wargames to test strategies and plans before risking blood and
treasure.The authors of Wargaming forLeaderstell the inside story of
how wargames can help decision makers achieve success and avoid the
pain of failure.”
—General (Ret.) Anthony Zinni,
former commander of U.S. Central Command
“Wargaming, once only a discipline used in military preparation, has
emerged as a driving force in shaping strategies in corporate boardrooms.
Any leader in either government or business will benefit greatly from this
book and understand the potential of wargaming in their own decision
making.”
—Michael McConnell,
director of national intelligence, United States
W
ARGAMING
FOR
LEADERS
STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING FROM THE
BATTLEFIELD TO THE BOARDROOM
MARK HERMAN
MARK FROST
ROBERT KURZ
New York Chicago San Francisco
Lisbon London Madrid Mexico City Milan
New Delhi San Juan Seoul Singapore
Sydney Toronto
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CONTENTS
Acknowledgments
vii
Introduction
1
PART I
Military Wargames
1
CHAPTER Designing the Modern Wargame:
Three Key Moves
11
2
CHAPTER A Decade of Competitive Strategies 27
3
CHAPTER Gulf Wars (The Rest of the Story) 41
4
CHAPTER The Age of Transformation 53
5
CHAPTER The U.S. Navy and the Post-9/11 Era 67
PART II
Wargames for Business
6
CHAPTER In the Beginning 79
7
CHAPTER Where there’s a will, there’s a way 93
8
CHAPTER The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly 111
9
CHAPTER Energy Plays 127
(cid:2)
vi CONTENTS
10
CHAPTER Don’t Fight the Scenario:
The Plus Side
147
11
CHAPTER All Hazards, All the Time 157
PART III
Global Crisis Wargames
12
CHAPTER The Impact of 9/11 179
13
CHAPTER The Next Port in the Storm 191
14
CHAPTER The Once and Future Bird Flu 205
15
CHAPTER Megacommunities at Work 227
16
CHAPTER The Persian Gulf, Revisited 247
Index
263
Acknowledgments
A wargame is built on the dedicated efforts of many individuals.
Over the past 20 years, thousands of leaders have contributed their
creativity and commitment to make the wargames we stage for or-
ganizations in both the public and private sectors a remarkable suc-
cess. We sincerely thank each of these individuals for their
enthusiasm, engagement, and candor in taking on some of the
most complex problems our governments, businesses, and public
face. The stories on the following pages reflect the generosity of our
clients, participants, and colleagues.
Without the support of our partners at Booz Allen Hamilton,
this book would not have been possible. We especially wish to ex-
press our gratitude to Booz Allen chairman Ralph Shrader, who
encouraged our groundbreaking efforts at the World Economic Fo-
rum, and to Joe Garner, a senior vice president at the firm who pro-
vided ample encouragement as we took on this book project.
We extend our most sincere gratitude to Mike Ruby for his per-
spective and perseverance in pulling together a sometimes over-
whelming amount of information into a cogent, compelling
narrative. A first-class reporter and writer, he gave shape to the in-
numerable memories and insights we’ve gathered over the years
from our work.
Many of the stories in this book draw on the memories of our
partners Mark Gerencser and Bill Thoet, and of core members of
our wargaming staff—Bob Statz, Mark Jacobsohn, Larry Hamby,
Andrea Beck, Eliot Goldberg, Bob Mayes, Nicole Weepie, Nicole
Monteforte, and Tracy March. And our gratitude to Rosie Schwartz,
vii
(cid:2)
viii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Melanie Olmsted, and Jolene Sawvel, who managed the daily mir-
acle of keeping our schedules on track so that we could continue to
serve our clients while focusing on this book.
No wargame is a light undertaking. Each takes weeks of in-
tense preparation. Many Booz Allen professionals contributed ex-
traordinary commitment and passion to helping our clients explore
innovative solutions to the Herculean problems that plague their
businesses, industries, and communities. We cannot name them
all here, but each of them knows that their contributions were in-
valuable.
Our early successes in wargaming were realized through the
pioneering efforts and encouragement of our colleagues Charley
Beever, Marty Bollinger, Paul Branstad, John Harbison, Barry
Jaruzelski, Dan Lewis, Skid Masterson, John McCarter, Joe Nemec,
Bruce Pasternack, George Thibault, and John Treat. In recent years,
Heather Burns, Joan Dempsey, Chris Kelly, Janet Lyman, Mike
McKeon, Susan Penfield, Robin Portman, Don Pressley, Ghassan
Salameh, Gary Schulman, Steve Soules, Reggie Van Lee, Rich Wil-
helm, and Charlie Zuhoski have helped extend Booz Allen’s run of
impactful wargames through their generous support and efforts.
As well, we thank our corporate communications team—especially
Randy Rothenberg, Marie Lerch, Amy Bernstein, Janine Corne-
celli, Cynthia Baker, and Melanie Pontier—for their assistance in
conceiving and launching this book.
Our warmest thanks go to our wives—Carole Herman, Paula
Frost, and Pamela Alexander—for their great patience, tolerance,
and understanding in allowing us to embark on one great wargam-
ing adventure after another.
Mark Herman
Mark Frost
Robert Kurz
Introduction
It was two o’clock in the afternoon, only a few hours after Ameri-
cans had awakened to the news that Saddam Hussein’s military
forces had invaded Kuwait, and we already had assembled a team
to take on the Iraqi dictator. Our “battlefield” was a conference table
in suburban Virginia, within hailing distance of the Pentagon and
the nation’s capital across the Potomac River. Our war council in-
cluded a few colleagues from our firm, Booz Allen Hamilton, and
several experts from the National Defense University, especially its
Institute for National Security Studies.
We knew what Iraq had done that day in early August 1990. We
had mustered our forces to ask why Saddam had acted, what he in-
tended to do next, and what the United States and the other good
guys could do about it.
Before us on the table was “Gulf Strike,” a board wargame
Mark Herman had designed for hobbyists seven years earlier. It
was one of the dozens of commercial wargames that he had au-
thored, a reflection of his fascination with military history dating
back to the age of 12, when he mapped out his first wargame, on
the Battle of Balaclava. The Charge of the Light Brigade wasn’t top
of mind on August 2, 1990. Instead, we were concerned with Sad-
dam’s Republican Guard and what was then the fourth largest army
in the world.
We had divided our participants into teams representing the
nations and interests in the game. Before them was a detailed map
of the countries in the region, with pieces or symbols representing
various military, transportation, and economic assets.
1