Tropospheric Ozone Abatement: Developing Efficient Strategies for the Reduction of Ozone Precursor Emissions in Europe

254 Pages·2000·7.99 MB·English

by  Rainer Friedrich (auth.)

Tropospheric Ozone Abatement
Springer
Berlin
Heidelberg
New York
Barcelona
Hong Kong
London
Milan
Paris
Singapore
Tokyo
Rainer Friedrich . Stefan Reis (Eds.)
Tropospheric Ozone Abatement
Developing Efficient Strategies
for the Reduction
of Ozone Precursor Emissions
in Europe
With lO4 Figures
and 62 Tables
Springer
Prof. Dr. Rainer Friedrich
Dipl.-Wirtsch.-Ing. Stefan Reis
University of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
HeBbriihlstraBe 49 a
D-70550 Stuttgart, Germany
ISBN-13:978-3-642-64091-9 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data applied for
Die Deutsche Bibliothek - CIP-Einheitsaufnahme
Tropospheric ozone abatement: developing efficient strategies for the reduction of ozone
precursor emissions in Europe; with 62 tables / Rainer Friedrich; Stefan Reis (ed.). - Berlin;
Heidelberg; New York; Barcelona; Hong Kong; London; Milan; Paris; Singapore; Tokyo:
Springer, 2000
ISBN-13 :978-3-642-64091-9 e-ISBN-13 :978-3-642-59698-8
DOl: 10 .1 007/978-3-642-59698-8
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Preface
The occurrence of high concentrations of ozone during summer episodes in the
troposphere over Europe is a problem still unsolved. Although a number· of
measures have been implemented that will achieve a further reduction of precursor
emissions in the next years, this will not be sufficient to reduce the ozone
concentration to levels below thresholds set up to protect human health and plants.
Thus, further reductions of emissions of volatile organic compounds and nitrogen
oxides are necessary. However, with regard to the increasing costs associated with
increasing emission reduction, it is essential to implement abatement strategies,
that are effective, i.e. achieving the environmental aim set up, and efficient, i. e.
doing this with the least costs possible.
In this book, the authors describe the features and the application of a
methodology and a model system to identify effective and efficient strategies to
reduce ambient concentrations of tropospheric ozone to comply with thresholds
set up to protect human health, agricultural crops and ecosystems. Furthermore,
macroeconomic impacts of such strategies are addressed and, as burden and
benefits of these strategies are not equally distributed between countries, different
burden sharing schemes are discussed.
The content of this book is based on results of a comprehensive research
project, the project INFOS (assessment of policy instruments for efficient ozone
abatement strategies in Europe), funded by the European Commission (Directorate
General XII) under the Fourth Framework Programme for research, technological
development and demonstration activities.
Rainer Friedrich, Stefan Reis
Contents
Preface
1 Introduction, R. Friedrich ............... ................ .................................... ............... ... 1
2 Tropospheric Ozone, S. Reis, R. Friedrich ......... ........... ........ ........ ... ....... ........ .... 5
2.1 Tropospheric Chemistry and Ozone Precursor Substances ...................... 5
2.1.1 Ozone Formation in the Troposphere ............................................ 5
2.1.2 Anthropogenic Emissions of Ozone Precursor Substances ........... 7
2.1.3 Biogenic Emissions of Ozone Precursors .................................... 10
2.1.4 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dispersion .................................. 10
2.2 Impacts on Health and Vegetation .......................................................... 10
2.2.1 Effects on Human Health ............................................................ 11
2.2.2 Impacts on Agricultural Crops and Forests ................................. 11
2.2.3 The Concept of Critical Levels and Loads .................................. 12
2.2.4 Source-Receptor Relationships ................................................... 13
2.2.5 Limit Values and Cumulative Approaches .................................. 13
2.3 Air Quality Legislation, Thresholds and Standards ................................ 14
2.3.1 Legislative Overview .................................................................. 14
2.3.2 United Nations Economic Commission for Europe ................... 16
2.3.3 World Health Organisation ........................................................ 16
2.3.4 European Union ......................................................................... 17
2.4 Tropospheric Ozone - a Local or Regional Problem? ........................... 20
2.4.1 Local Ozone Formation and Transboundary Transport ............... 20
2.4.2 Urban and Rural Areas ................................................................ 21
2.4.3 Exceedances of Thresholds and Limit Values ............................. 21
2.5 References .............................................................................................. 23
3 Emissions of Ozone Precursors, S. Reis, R. Friedrich ................................. 25
3.1 Source Sector Analysis ........................................................................... 25
3.1.1 Sources of NO Emissions .......................................................... 25
x
3.1.2 Sources ofNMVOC Emissions ................................................... 27
3.2 Country analysis ..................................................................................... 29
3.2.1 Emissions per Country and Sector .............................................. 29
VIII Contents
3.2.2. Per Capita Emissions ................................................................... 30
3.2.3 Time Series Analysis ................................................................... 32
3.3 References .............................................................................................. 33
4 Emission Abatement Measures, D. Papameletiou, J. M. Maqueda .................... 35
4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................ 35
4.2 Road Transport Sector ............................................................................ 36
4.2.1 Passenger Cars and Light-Duty Vehicles - Gasoline .................. 41
4.2.2 Passenger Cars and Light-Duty Vehicles - Diesel.. .................... 42
4.2.3 Heavy-Duty Vehicles - Diesel ................................................... .43
4.2.4 Fuel Cell Powered Vehicles ........................................................ 44
4.2.5 Techno-Economic Profiles of Measures for Road Transport .... .45
4.3 Energy Sector ......................................................................................... 46
4.3.1 Techno-Economic Profile of Measures for the Energy Sector .. .48
4.4 Solvent Use Sector ................................................................................. 51
4.4.1 Techno-Economic Profiles of Measures for the Solvent Sector. 53
4.5 Conclusions ............................................................................................ 56
4.6 References .............................................................................................. 57
Acknowledgement .................................................................................. 60
5 Scenarios of Future Development, S. Reis, R. Friedrich .............. ................ 61
5.1 Methodology for Emission Projection .................................................... 61
5.1.1 Approach ..................................................................................... 61
5.1.2 Emission Projection - Basic Methodology ................................. 61
5.2 Driving Forces of Emission Development ............................................. 62
5.2.1 Societal and Demographic Trends .............................................. 63
5.2.2 Economic Trends ........................................................................ 63
5.2.3 Energy Trends ............................................................................. 64
5.3 Political and Legislative Framework ...................................................... 66
5.3.1 Sectoral Air Pollution Control Policies ....................................... 67
5.3.2 Legislation on Specific Substances ............................................. 69
5.4 Detailed Sectoral Projection ................................................................... 71
5.4.1 Emissions from the Energy Sector .............................................. 71
5.4.2 Emissions from Residential and Commercial Combustion ......... 72
5.4.3 Emissions from Industrial Combustion ....................................... 72
5.4.4 Emissions from Industry Processes ............................................. 73
5.4.5 Emissions from Fuel Handling .................................................... 73
5.4.6 Emissions from Solvent Use ....................................................... 74
5.4.7 Emissions from Road Transport .................................................. 75
5.4.8 Emissions from Other Mobile Sources ....................................... 76
5.4.9 Emissions from Waste Handling ................................................. 77
5.4.10 Emissions from Agriculture ....................................................... 77
5.5 Trend Scenario Emissions ...................................................................... 77
5.6 References .............................................................................................. 81
Contents IX
6 Regional Modeling of Tropospheric Ozone, D. Simpson, J. E. Jonson ...... 83
6.1 Introduction ............................................................................................ 83
6.2 The Models ............................................................................................. 83
6.3 Emission Input to Models ....................................................................... 84
6.4 Statistics Used ........................................................................................ 86
6.5 Model Calculations: 1990 Base and 2010 Trend Case ........................... 86
6.5.1 Base-Case 1990 and Trend 2010 Scenario, 5 yr Average ........... 87
6.5.2 Comparison of Models: Trend 2010 Scenario ............................. 87
6.6 Model Calculations: Sector-by-Sector Emission Scenarios .................... 88
6.6.1 Emission Control Measures, SNAP sectors 1-10 ........................ 88
6.6.2 Road Traffic Measures ................................................................ 90
6.7 Country-to-Country Calculations ......................................................... 92
6.8 Summary and Conclusions ..................................................................... 93
6.9 References .............................................................................................. 96
7 Optimising Regional Ozone Reduction Strategies, S. Reis, D. Simpson,
R. Friedrich............................................................................................................. 99
7.1 Introduction ............................................................................................ 99
7.2 The OMEGA Model ............................................................................. 100
7.2.1 Inputs to the Optimisation ......................................................... 103
7.2.2 An Optimised Solution? ............................................................ 108
7.3 OMEGA Model Results ....................................................................... 109
7.4 Evaluation of Optimisation Results ...................................................... 116
7.5 Modelled Exceedance Statistics of Ozone Thresholds ......................... 118
7.6 Summary and Conclusions ................................................................... 119
7.7 References ............................................................................................ 119
Acknowledgements .............................................................................. 120
8 Tropospheric Ozone and Urban Air Quality, N. Moussiopou/os, P. Sahm,
P.-M. Tour/au, T. Nitis, A. K. Azad and S. Papa/exiou ........................................... 121
8.1 Introduction .......................................................................................... 121
8.2 Ambient Ozone Concentrations in Selected Mesoscale Areas ............. 122
8.2.1 Emission Estimates ................................................................... 123
8.2.2 Ambient Concentrations of Tropospheric Ozone in Athens ...... 126
8.2.3 Ambient Concentrations of Tropospheric Ozone in Stuttgart ... 135
8.2.4 Ambient Concentrations of Tropospheric Ozone in Milan ....... 143
8.3 Conclusions .......................................................................................... 147
8.4 References ............................................................................................ 149
9 Efficiency, Equity and Burden-Sharing, R. Sa/mons ....................... 151
9.1 Introduction .......................................................................................... 151
9.2 Efficiency ............................................................................................. 152
9.2.1 Permit Trading and Pollution Characteristics ............................ 153
X Contents
9.2.2 Ozone Control Problem ............................................................. 154
9.2.3 Iterative Zonal Permit Trading .................................................. 159
9.2.4 Illustrative Example .................................................................. 169
9.3 Equity and Burden-Sharing .................................................................. 172
9.3.1 Underlying Principles ................................................................ 172
9.3.2 Institutional Framework ............................................................ 177
9.3.3 Calculation of Transfer Payments ............................................. 180
9.4 Discussion ............................................................................................ 188
9.5 References ............................................................................................ 190
9.6 Appendix .............................................................................................. 192
10 Macroeconomic Impacts of Abatement Strategies, C. Kemfert .... ...... ... 193
10 .1 Objective .............................................................................................. 193
10.2 Model Description ................................................................................ 193
10.3 Model Calculations ............................................................................... 195
10.3.1 Scenario Definition ................................................................... 195
10.3.2 Model Results ........................................................................... 196
10.4 Effects on Import and Export ............................................................... 201
10.5 Summary and Outlook .......................................................................... 202
10.6 References ............................................................................................ 203
11 Summary and Conclusions, R. Friedrich, S. Reis ....................................... 205
Index ....................................................................................................................... 219
List of Authors
Dr. Abul Kalam Azad DipI.-Phys. Sofia Papalexiou
Laboratory for Heat Transfer and Laboratory for Heat Transfer and
Environmental Engineering (LHTEE) Environmental Engineering (LHTEE)
Aristotle University Thessaloniki Aristotle U ni versity Thessaloniki
Thessaloniki, Greece Thessaloniki, Greece
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Rainer Friedrich Dr. Demosthenes Papameletiou
Institute of Energy Economics and the Institute for Prospective Technology
Rational Use of Energy (IER), University Studies (IPTS), loint Research Centre
of Stuttgart, Hessbruehlstrasse 49a Isla de la Cartuja sin, Sevilla, Spain
70565 Stuttgart, Germany [email protected]
[email protected]
Dipl. Wirtsch.-Ing. Stefan Reis
Jan Eiof Jonson Institute of Energy Economics and the
EMEP MSC-W, Norwegian Rational Use of Energy (IER), University
Meteorological Institute (DNMI) of Stuttgart, Hessbruehlstrasse 49a
P.B. 43 Blindern, N-0313 Oslo, Norway 70565 Stuttgart, Germany
[email protected] Stefan. Reis @ier.uni-stuttgart.de
Dr. Claudia Kemfert Roger Salmons
Institute of Energy Economics and the Centre for Social and Econmonic Research
Rational Use of Energy (IER), University on the Global Environment (CSERGE),
of Stuttgart, Hessbruehlstrasse 49a University College London, Gower Street,
70565 Stuttgart, Germany London WCIE 6BT, United Kingdom
[email protected] [email protected]
Dipl.-Ing. Jose Maria Maqueda-Barrera Dr.-Ing. Peter Sahm
Universidad de Sevilla, Escuela Superior Laboratory for Heat Transfer and
de Ingenieros, Sevilla, Spain Environmental Engineering (LHTEE)
jose. maria. [email protected] Aristotle University Thessaloniki
Thessaloniki, Greece
[email protected]
Prof. Dr. Nicolas Moussiopoulos
Laboratory for Heat Transfer and
Environmental Engineering (LHTEE) David Simpson
Aristotle University Thessaloniki EMEP MSC-W, Norwegian
Thessaloniki, Greece Meteorological Institute (DNMI)
[email protected] P.B. 43 B1indern, N-0313 Oslo, Norway
David. [email protected]
Environ. Scient. Theodoros Nitis
Laboratory for Heat Transfer and Dipl.-Ing. Paraskevi-Maria Tourlou
Environmental Engineering (LHTEE) Laboratory for Heat Transfer and
Aristotle University Thessaloniki Environmental Engineering (LHTEE)
Thessaloniki, Greece Aristotle University Thessaloniki
Thessaloniki, Greece
[email protected]