Thinking Ahead: Essays on Big Data, Digital Revolution, and Participatory Market Society

200 Pages·2015·1.35 MB·English

by  Dirk Helbing

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ThinkingAhead—EssaysonBigData,DigitalRevolution,and
ParticipatoryMarketSociety
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Dirk Helbing
Thinking
Ahead----Essays on Big
Data, Digital
Revolution, and
Participatory Market
Society
2123
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DirkHelbing
ETHZürich,CLUE1
ComputationalSocialScience
Claussiusstrasse50
8092Zürich
Switzerland
ISBN978-3-319-15077-2 ISBN978-3-319-15078-9(eBook)
DOI10.1007/978-3-319-15078-9
LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2015934446
SpringerChamHeidelbergNewYorkDordrechtLondon
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About the Author
PhysicistDirkHelbingisProfessorofComputationalSocialSci-
ence at the Department of Humanities, Social and Political
Sciences and an affiliate of the Computer Science Department
atETHZurich,aswellasco-founderofETH’sRiskCenter.He
isinternationallyknownforthescientificcoordinationoftheFu-
turICTInitiativewhichfocusesonusingsmartdatatounderstand
techno-socio-economicsystems.
“Prof.Helbinghasproducedaninsightfulandimportantsetofessays
onthewaysinwhichbigdataandcomplexitysciencearechangingour
understandingofourselvesandoursociety, andpotentiallyallowing
ustomanageoursocietiesmuchbetterthanwearecurrentlyableto
do. Ofspecialnotearetheessaysthattouchonthepromisesofbig
dataalongwiththedangers...thisismaterialthatweshouldallbecome
familiarwith!”
Alex Pentland, MIT, author of Social Physics: How Good
IdeasSpread−−TheLessonsFromaNewScience
“Dirk Helbing has established his reputation as one of the leading
scientificthinkersonthedramaticimpactsofthedigitalrevolutionon
oursocietyandeconomy.ThinkingAheadisamoststimulatingand
provocativesetofessayswhichdeservesawideaudience.”
Paul Ormerod, economist, and author of Butterfly Econo-
micsandWhyMostThingsFail.
v
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vi
“Itisbecomingincreasinglyclearthatmanyofourinstitutionsand
socialstructuresareinabadwayandurgentlyneedfixing.Financial
crises, international conflicts, civil wars and terrorism, inaction on
climatechange,problemsofpoverty,wideningeconomicinequality,
healthepidemics,pollutionandthreatstodigitalprivacyandidentity
arejustsomeofthemajorchallengesthatweconfrontinthetwenty-
firstcentury.Theseissuesdemandnewandboldthinking,andthatis
whatDirkHelbingoffersinthiscollectionofessays.Ifevenafraction
oftheseideaspayoff,theconsequencesforglobalgovernancecould
besignificant.Sothisisamust-readbookforanyoneconcernedabout
thefuture.”
PhilipBall,sciencewriterandauthorofCriticalMass
“Thiscollectionofpapers,broughttogetherbyDirkHelbing,isboth
timelyandtopical.ItraisesconcernsaboutBigData,whicharetruly
frighteninganddisconcerting,thatwedoneedtobeawareof;while
atthesametimeofferingsomehopethatthetechnology,whichhas
createdthepreviouslyunthought-ofdangerstoourprivacy,safetyand
democracycanbethemeanstoaddressthesedangersbyenablingsocial,
economicandpoliticalparticipationandcoordination,notpossiblein
thepast.ItmakesforcompellingreadingandIhopefortimelyaction.”
Eve Mitleton-Kelly, LSE, author of Corporate Governance
and Complexity Theory and editor of Co-evolution of
IntelligentSocio-technicalSystems.
Foto:SabinaBobst
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Preface
Thisbookletpresentsacollectionofessaysanddiscussionorwhite
papersonBigData,theongoingDigitalRevolutionandtheemer-
gentParticipatoryMarketSociety.Thesehavebeenwrittensince
theyear2008inanticipationofandresponsetothefinancialand
othercrises.Whilewehaveseenaprettypeacefulperiodafterthe
falloftheBerlinWallin1989,theworldseemstohaveincreasingly
destabilizedintheaftermathofSeptember11,2001.
Ifwewanttomastertherelatedchallenges,wemustanalyzethe
underlyingproblemsandchangethewaywemanageourtechno-
socio-economicsystems.
I would like to thank many friends and colleagues, in
particulartheworldwideFuturICTcommunity,fortheinspiring
discussions and the continued support. I am also grateful to
Stefano Balietti, James Breiding, and Markus Christen for their
reprintpermissionsregardingtwoofthechaptersinthisbooklet.
November2014 DirkHelbing
Zürich
vii
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Contents
1
Introduction-----HaveWeOpenedPandora’sBox? 1
1.1 GlobalFinancial,EconomicandPublicSpending
Crisis ................................. 1
1.2 Needofa“KnowledgeAccelerator”.......... 3
1.3 WeareExperiencingaDigitalRevolution ....... 4
1.4 ThreatstotheAverageCitizen .............. 5
1.5 ThreatssoBigthatOneCannotEvenTalkAbout
Them................................. 6
1.6 AreweEnteringanAgeofDiscrimination? ..... 7
1.7 ThreatstoCompanies .................... 8
1.8 PoliticalandSocietalRisks.................. 9
1.9 Are the Secret Services Democratically well
Controlled? ............................ 10
1.10 WhatKindofSocietyareweHeadingto? ...... 11
1.11 “BigGovernments”Fueledby“BigData” ...... 13
1.12 WeMustMoveBeyondSeptember11......... 14
1.13 WhatNeedstobeDone................... 15
1.14 ABetterFuture,BasedonSelf-Regulation ...... 17
References .................................. 18
2
LostRobustness ........................... 27
2.1 UnderstandingComplexSystems ............ 28
2.2 CriticalityandLackofTransparency........... 30
2.3 AccelerationandDe-Compartmentalization..... 33
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x ThinkingAhead—EssaysonBigData...
2.4 SystemicStabilityandTrust................. 34
2.5 UtilizingControlFeaturesofComplexSystems... 36
2.6 AuthorInformation ...................... 37
3
How and Why Our Conventional Economic
ThinkingCausesGlobalCrises ............... 39
3.1 “MoreNetworkingIsGoodandReducesRisks”.. 40
3.2 “TheEconomyTendsTowardsanEquilibriumState” 41
3.3 “IndividualsandCompaniesDecideRationally” .. 42
3.4 “Selfish Behavior Optimizes the Systemic
PerformanceandBenefitsEveryone” .......... 43
3.5 “FinancialMarketsAreEfficient”............. 44
3.6 “MoreInformationandFinancialInnovationsAre
Good”................................ 45
3.7 “MoreLiquidityIsBetter”.................. 46
3.8 “AllAgentscanBeTreatedasifActingtheSame
Way”................................. 46
3.9 “RegulationcanFixtheImperfectionsofEconomic
Systems” .............................. 47
3.10 “MoralBehaviorIsGoodforOthers,butBadfor
Oneself” .............................. 48
3.11 Summary.............................. 49
FurtherReading .............................. 51
4
‘‘NetworkedMinds’’RequireaFundamentally
NewKindofEconomics..................... 53
4.1 Evolutionof“Friendliness” ................. 54
4.2 NetworkedMindsCreateaCooperativeHuman
Species ............................... 55
4.3 AParticipatoryKindofEconomy............. 55
5
A New Kind of Economy is Born−Social
Decision-MakersBeatthe‘‘HomoEconomicus’’ 57
5.1 OutdatedTheory,OutdatedInstitutions........ 59
5.2 NewInstitutionsforaGlobalInformationSociety. 60
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Contents xi
5.3 BenefitsofaSelf-RegulatingEconomy......... 61
5.4 Economics2.0: EmergenceofaParticipatory
MarketSociety .......................... 63
References .................................. 64
FurtherReading .............................. 64
6
GlobalNetworksMustbeRedesigned ........ 67
6.1 LivinginaHyperconnectedWorld............ 68
6.2 OurIntuitionofSystemicRisksisMisleading .... 68
6.3 AGlobalTickingTimeBomb?............... 69
6.4 GlobalNetworksMustbeRedesigned ......... 71
6.5 ComingEraofSocialInnovation ............. 72
6.6 CreatingandProtectingSocialCapital......... 73
7
Big Data-----APowerful New Resource for the
Twenty-firstCentury ....................... 75
7.1 DataSetsBiggerthantheLargestLibrary....... 76
7.2 WhatDoApplicationsLookLike? ............ 77
7.3 ThePotentialsAreGreat... ................. 78
7.4 ...butalsotheImplicitRisks ................ 79
7.5 TheDigitalRevolutionCreatesanUrgencytoAct. 79
7.6 EuropecanBecomeaMotorofInnovationforthe
DigitalEra ............................. 80
References .................................. 81
8
GoogleasGod?OpportunitiesandRisksofthe
InformationAge ........................... 83
8.1 Introduction............................ 83
8.2 GoldRushfortheTwenty-firstCenturyOil...... 84
8.3 HumansControlledbyComputers?........... 85
8.4 IsPrivacyStillNeeded? .................... 85
8.5 InformationOverload..................... 85
8.6 TheKnowledge-Is-PowerSociety............. 86
8.7 ANewWorldOrderBasedonInformation? ..... 86
8.8 PrivacyandSocio-DiversityNeedProtection ..... 87
8.9 AnAlternativeVisionoftheInformationAge.... 88
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