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OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,22/4/2015,SPi THE SCEPTICAL OPTIMIST OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,22/4/2015,SPi OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,22/4/2015,SPi OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,22/4/2015,SPi 3 GreatClarendonStreet,Oxford,OXDP, UnitedKingdom OxfordUniversityPressisadepartmentoftheUniversityofOxford. ItfurtherstheUniversity’sobjectiveofexcellenceinresearch,scholarship, andeducationbypublishingworldwide.Oxfordisaregisteredtrademarkof OxfordUniversityPressintheUKandincertainothercountries #NicholasAgar Themoralrightsoftheauthorhavebeenasserted FirstEditionpublishedin Impression: Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedin aretrievalsystem,ortransmitted,inanyformorbyanymeans,withoutthe priorpermissioninwritingofOxfordUniversityPress,orasexpresslypermitted bylaw,bylicenceorundertermsagreedwiththeappropriatereprographics rightsorganization.Enquiriesconcerningreproductionoutsidethescopeofthe aboveshouldbesenttotheRightsDepartment,OxfordUniversityPress,atthe addressabove Youmustnotcirculatethisworkinanyotherform andyoumustimposethissameconditiononanyacquirer PublishedintheUnitedStatesofAmericabyOxfordUniversityPress MadisonAvenue,NewYork,NY,UnitedStatesofAmerica BritishLibraryCataloguinginPublicationData Dataavailable LibraryofCongressControlNumber: ISBN –––– PrintedinGreatBritainby ClaysLtd,StIvesplc LinkstothirdpartywebsitesareprovidedbyOxfordingoodfaithand forinformationonly.Oxforddisclaimsanyresponsibilityforthematerials containedinanythirdpartywebsitereferencedinthiswork. OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,22/4/2015,SPi ForAlexeiandRafael.Maytheygetthebestoutoffuture well-beingtechnologies. OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,22/4/2015,SPi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS InthewritingofthisbookIbenefitedfromtheadviceandsupport of many people. The following friends and colleagues read and commented on parts or all of the manuscript: Jan Agar, Petra Arnold, Sondra Bacharach, Stuart Brock, Caroline Clarinval, An- thony Elder, Simon Keller, Felice Marshall, César Palacios, Mark Walker, and Dan Weijers. Latha Menon, ably assisted by Emma Ma and Jenny Nugee, did a great job of shepherding the book throughtofinalpublication.DanHarding,thebook'scopy-editor, made a great many improvements to the text. I am grateful to anonymous referees for OUP who offered just the right combin- ation of encouragement about the project and scepticism about myclaims,andtoNicolaSangsterforproofreading.Finally,Iowe a special debt of gratitude to my wife Laurianne Reinsborough. vi OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,22/4/2015,SPi CONTENTS Listoffigures x Introduction  Anoutlineofthebook  . Radical optimism and the technology bias  Doestechnologicalprogressincreasesubjectivewell-being?  Radicallyoptimisticforecasts  Howshouldweprioritizetechnologicalprogress?  Concludingcomments  . Is there a law of technological progress?  Moore’sLaw,Kryder’sLaw,andexponential technologicalimprovement  Twoquestionsaboutexponentialtechnologicalprogress  Exponentialtechnologicalimprovementasaconditionallaw  Whatwentwrongwithcancer?  Kurzweil’sevolutionaryexplanationofexponential technologicalprogress  Thedifferencebetweenreflexiveandpassiveimprovement  Exponentialtechnologicalimprovementisinfectious  Concludingcomments  vii OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,22/4/2015,SPi CONTENTS . Does technological progress make us happier?  Thetraditionalparadoxofprogress  Howwehedonicallyadapttonewwell-beingtechnologies  Completeorincompletehedonicadaptation?  Concludingcomments  . The new paradox of progress  GibbonversusRidleyonhistoricalhappiness  Theperilsofattitudinaltimetravel  Hedonicnormalization  Howtomakecomparisonsthatbestrevealtheeffects oftechnologicalprogress  Completeorincompletehedonicnormalization  Whyhedonicnormalizationisprobablyincomplete  Thenewparadoxoftechnologicalprogress  Concludingcomments  . We need technological progress experiments  Technologicalprogresstraps  Twoidealsoftechnologicalprogress  Thefearoffallingbehind  Howisprogressdangerous?  Rehabilitatingtheideaoftechnologyexperiments  JaredDiamondonthenaturalexperimentsof traditionalsocieties  Creatingandnurturingvariationintechnologicalprogress  Anuclearpowerprogressexperiment  Whyshouldthewinnerssharewiththelosers?  Aprogressexperimentongeneticallymodifiedcrops  Thefutureoftechnologicalprogress  Concludingcomments  viii OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,22/4/2015,SPi CONTENTS . Why technological progress won’t end poverty  Povertyandwell-being  Ordinaryandemergencycircumstancesofpoverty  Radicallyoptimisticsolutionstopoverty  WeretherepoorpeopleinthePleistocene?  Howpovertyaffectslifesatisfaction  MisunderstandingthehappinessoftheSunKing  Evidencefromstatuscompetitionsfortherelevance ofsocialcontext  Economicandtechnologicaltrickledown  Concludingcomments  . Choosing a tempo of technological progress  Comparingdifferenttemposofprogress  Technologicalprogressmakesdiminishingmarginal contributionstowell-being  Mobilephonesandcancertherapies  Theimportanceofsubjectivelypositive technologicalprogress  Concludingcomments  Afterword: Don’t turn well-being technologies into Procrustean beds  Endnotes  Index  ix

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Radical optimism and the technology bias -- Is there a law of technological progress? -- Does technological progress make us happier? -- The new paradox of progress -- We need technological progress experiments -- Why technological progress won't end poverty -- Choosing a tempo of technological prog
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Radical optimism and the technology bias -- Is there a law of technological progress? -- Does technological progress make us happier? -- The new paradox of progress -- We need technological progress experiments -- Why technological progress won't end poverty -- Choosing a tempo of technological prog

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