Table Of ContentSpringer Aerospace Technology
Eliseev B. P. · Kozlov A. I. ·
Romancheva N. I. · Shatrakov Y. G. ·
Zatuchny D. A. · Zavalishin O. I.
Probabilistic-
Statistical Approaches
to the Prediction
of Aircraft Navigation
Systems Condition
Springer Aerospace Technology
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and spacecraft including design, construction, control and the science. The books
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Eliseev B. P. Kozlov A. I.
(cid:129) (cid:129)
Romancheva N. I. Shatrakov Y. G.
(cid:129) (cid:129)
Zatuchny D. A. Zavalishin O. I.
(cid:129)
Probabilistic-Statistical
Approaches to the Prediction
of Aircraft Navigation
Systems Condition
123
EliseevB. P. Kozlov A.I.
Moscow,Russia Moscow,Russia
Romancheva N.I. Shatrakov Y.G.
Moscow,Russia Saint Petersburg, Russia
Zatuchny D.A. Zavalishin O.I.
Moscow,Russia Moscow,Russia
ISSN 1869-1730 ISSN 1869-1749 (electronic)
SpringerAerospace Technology
ISBN978-981-13-9922-0 ISBN978-981-13-9923-7 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-9923-7
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Foreword
The monograph contains materials related to the features for improving the relia-
bility in assessing the reliability of data transmission systems and navigation sup-
port of aircraft. The aging processes of navigation equipment are investigated, and
their influence on the accuracy of determining navigation parameters is discussed.
The issues in assessing the performance of various navigation systems, in par-
ticular thelandingsystemGBAS,aretaken intoaccount,andvariousdestabilizing
factors are analyzed.
The task of choosing a safe route of the aircraft during the transition to area
navigation based on a rule that takes into account the reliability characteristics of
navigation and communication equipment is considered. The technique of conflict
resolution between the organization of air traffic flows of ships choosing the route
according to this rule is given.
Theforecastofthebehaviorofagingtechnicalsystemsandtheirelementsinthe
operating conditions of navigation and communication equipment was, is and,
apparently,willbeoneofthemostserioustechnicalproblemsforaverylongtime,
thesolutionofwhichdependsonthedirectionoffurthertechnicaldevelopmentand
the economic well-being of operators of such systems. The safety of the users of
equipment, service personnel, the ecological state of the environment, etc. directly
dependontheaccuracyandreliabilityoftheforecast.Theproblemofforecastingis
especiallyacutefortransportsystemsand,inparticular,whenorganizingairtraffic
flows and throughput of air transport. A large number of studies, theoretical and
experimentalresearchanddevelopment,aredevotedtosolvetherangeofproblems
under consideration. Their authors used a variety of approaches and methods to
solve specific and general problems.
It is clear that the complexity of solving the problem does not give hope in the
foreseeable future even to suggest the possibility of developing a single common
universal theory ofthebehavioroftechnicalsystems inthefieldofnavigation and
air traffic control operated in the broad sense of the word. That is why for a long
time, solving the problem is associated with the development of new approaches
and methods aimed at obtaining specific recommendations suitable for use in a
specific technique in specific conditions.
v
vi Foreword
Themonographpresentsboththeresultsoforiginalresearchandmaterialsfrom
the published works of other authors, a list of which is presented in the section
‘References.’Theauthorsareverygratefultothesponsorforthepublicationofthis
monograph.
Moscow, Russia Lukin D. S.
Honored Worker of Sciences of the Russian Federation
Laureate of State Prize of the USSR
Professor, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences
Contents
1 Stochastic Models of Aging and Liveness Processes of Complex
Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.1 Quasideterministic Models of Aging Processes of Complex
Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2 Statistical Models of Complex Systems Aging Process . . . . . . . . . 17
1.3 Analysis of the State of Aging Complex Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
1.4 Prediction of Aging Processes for Individual Components
of Complex Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
1.5 Methods to Increase the Liveness of the Aircraft, Taking
into Account Various External Threats. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
2 Analysis of Statistical Models of Aging Navigation Systems . . . . . . . 47
2.1 Available Aging Navigation Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
2.1.1 Exponential Transition Function. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
2.1.2 Gaussian Transition Function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
2.1.3 Fisher–Snedecor Transition Function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
2.1.4 Linear Transition Function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
2.1.5 Time Law . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
2.2 Recoverable Aging Navigation Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
2.2.1 Exponential Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
2.2.2 Linear Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
2.3 State Assessment of Aging Navigation Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
3 Features of Radio Navigation Devices Control of the Aircraft
in Conditions of Effect of Destabilizing Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
3.1 Features of the Aircraft Motion Control, Taking into Account
the Effect of Destabilizing Factors on Radio Navigation
Equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
3.2 Features of the Aircraft Motion Control Under Conditions
of Simultaneous Effect of Two Destabilizing Factors
on Radio Navigation Equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
vii
viii Contents
3.2.1 Features of Control of Two-Parameter Systems
with a Step Function of Reliability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
3.2.2 Time Characteristics of the Processes of Changing
Parameters in Connection with Control Tasks . . . . . . . . . . 86
3.3 Features of the Aircraft Motion Control Under Conditions
of Simultaneous Effect of Multiple Destabilizing Factors
on Radio Navigation Equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
3.4 Time Characteristics of the Processes of Changing Parameters
in Connection with Control Tasks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
4 Basic Radio Technical Means to Ensure the Reliability
of the Aircraft Flight . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
4.1 Analysis of Electromagnetic Environment in the Aerodrome
Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
4.2 Sources of Radio Interference and Their Influence
on the Estimation of Aircraft Location Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
4.2.1 Urban Television. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
4.2.2 HF Radio Stations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
4.2.3 Power-Actuated Automatic Radio stations. . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
4.2.4 Radio Technical Equipment of the Airport Area . . . . . . . . 112
4.2.5 The Impact of the Technical Condition of the Radio
technical Equipment of the Airport Area. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114
4.2.6 Ultra-High Frequency Airborne and Ground-Based
Radio Stations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
4.2.7 Effect of the Primary and Spurious Radiation of
Communication HF Radio Stations on the Radio-Beacon
Landing System Glide Channel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
4.3 Estimation of the Ground-Based Station GBAS Performance . . . . 119
5 Transmission of Digital Navigational Information and Evaluation
of the Results of Decisions Made . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
5.1 Methods of Transmitting Navigational Information
and Evaluation of the Results of Decisions Made. . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
5.2 Approach to Building an Electronic Data Warehouse
to Ensure the Correct Transmission of Information
from the Aircraft . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
5.3 Decision-Making Methods for Estimating the Probability
of Fail-Free Operation of the Navigation Information
Transmission Line . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
5.4 Estimation of the Probability of Fail-Free Operation of the
Aircraft Navigation Data Link, Taking into Account a Priori
Information About the Probability of Fail-Free Operation
of Its Elements. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
Contents ix
5.5 Comparison of Approximate Methods for Estimating
the Probability of Reliable Transmission of Navigation
Information Over a Data Link. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
5.6 Inverse Problem of Assessing the Quality of the Elements
of the Navigation Data Link . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
5.7 Justification of the Selection of the Type of Navigation
Data Link. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160
6 The Choice of the Aircraft Route During the Transition
to Area Navigation Subject to the Reliability of the Navigation
and Communication Facilities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167
6.1 Features of the Implementation of Area Navigation . . . . . . . . . . . 167
6.2 Improvement of the Aircraft Route Taking into Account
ICAO Recommendations on Air Traffic Management . . . . . . . . . . 173
6.3 Method of Monitoring Vertical Separation with Use
of ADS-B Means . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186
6.4 On Polarization Coloration of the Antenna Radiation Pattern . . . . 192
References.... .... .... .... ..... .... .... .... .... .... ..... .... 197
