Inequality and Democratization: An Elite-Competition Approach

244 Pages·2014·2.06 MB·English

by  Ben W. Ansell

InequalityandDemocratization
AnElite-CompetitionApproach
Researchontheeconomicoriginsofdemocracyanddictatorshiphasshifted
away from the impact of growth and turned toward the question of how
differentpatternsofgrowth—equalorunequal—shaperegimechange.This
book offers a new theory of the historical relationship between economic
modernization and the emergence of democracy on a global scale, focusing
on the effects of land and income inequality. Contrary to most mainstream
arguments, Ben W. Ansell and David J. Samuels suggest that democracy
is more likely to emerge when rising yet politically disenfranchised groups
demand more influence because they have more to lose, rather than when
threatsofredistributiontoeliteinterestsarelow.
Ben W. Ansell is Professor of Comparative Democratic Institutions at
Nuffield College, Oxford, and coeditor of Comparative Political Studies.
His work on education, democracy, and housing markets has appeared
in the American Political Science Review, Comparative Political Studies,
World Politics, and International Organization. His book From the Ballot
totheBlackboard(Cambridge,2010)wasawardedthe2011WilliamRiker
Prize by the Political Economy Section of the American Political Science
Association.
DavidJ.SamuelsisDistinguishedMcKnightUniversityProfessorofPolitical
Science at the University of Minnesota. He is the coauthor of Presidents,
Parties, and Prime Ministers (Cambridge, 2010); the author of Ambition,
Federalism, and Legislative Politics in Brazil (Cambridge, 2003); and the
coeditor of Decentralization and Democracy in Latin America (2004). His
work has appeared in the American Political Science Review, the American
Journal of Political Science, Comparative Politics, Comparative Political
Studies, Legislative Studies Quarterly, and the British Journal of Political
Science.HecurrentlyservesascoeditorofComparativePoliticalStudies.

CambridgeStudiesinComparativePolitics
GeneralEditor
MargaretLevi UniversityofWashington,Seattle
AssistantGeneralEditors
KathleenThelen MassachusettsInstituteofTechnology
ErikWibbels DukeUniversity
AssociateEditors
RobertH.Bates HarvardUniversity
GaryCox StanfordUniversity
StephenHanson TheCollegeofWilliamandMary
TorbenIversen HarvardUniversity
StathisKalyvas YaleUniversity
PeterLange DukeUniversity
HelenMilner PrincetonUniversity
FrancesRosenbluth YaleUniversity
SusanStokes YaleUniversity
SidneyTarrow CornellUniversity
OtherBooksintheSeries
BenW.Ansell,FromtheBallottotheBlackboard:TheRedistributivePoliticalEconomyof
Education
LeonardoR.Arriola,Multi-EthnicCoalitionsinAfrica:BusinessFinancingofOpposition
ElectionCampaigns
DavidAusten-Smith,JeffryA.Frieden,MiriamA.Golden,KarlOveMoene,andAdam
Przeworski,eds.,SelectedWorksofMichaelWallerstein:ThePoliticalEconomyofInequality,
Unions,andSocialDemocracy
AndyBaker,TheMarketandtheMassesinLatinAmerica:PolicyReformandConsumptionin
LiberalizingEconomies
LisaBaldez,WhyWomenProtest:Women’sMovementsinChile
StefanoBartolini,ThePoliticalMobilizationoftheEuropeanLeft,1860–1980:TheClass
Cleavage
RobertBates,WhenThingsFellApart:StateFailureinLate-CenturyAfrica
MarkBeissinger,NationalistMobilizationandtheCollapseoftheSovietState
NancyBermeo,ed.,UnemploymentintheNewEurope
CarlesBoix,DemocracyandRedistribution
CarlesBoix,PoliticalParties,Growth,andEquality:ConservativeandSocialDemocratic
EconomicStrategiesintheWorldEconomy
CatherineBoone,MerchantCapitalandtheRootsofStatePowerinSenegal,1930–1985
CatherineBoone,PoliticalTopographiesoftheAfricanState:TerritorialAuthorityand
InstitutionalChange
CatherineBoone,PropertyandPoliticalOrderinAfrica:LandRightsandtheStructureof
Politics
MichaelBratton,RobertMattes,andE.Gyimah-Boadi,PublicOpinion,Democracy,andMarket
ReforminAfrica
(ContinuedaftertheIndex)

Inequality and Democratization
An Elite-Competition Approach
BEN W. ANSELL
UniversityofOxford
DAVID J. SAMUELS
UniversityofMinnesota
32AvenueoftheAmericas,NewYork,NY10013-2473,USA
CambridgeUniversityPressispartoftheUniversityofCambridge.
ItfurtherstheUniversity’smissionbydisseminatingknowledgeinthepursuitof
education,learning,andresearchatthehighestinternationallevelsofexcellence.
www.cambridge.org
Informationonthistitle:www.cambridge.org/9780521168793
(cid:2)c BenW.AnsellandDavidJ.Samuels2014
Thispublicationisincopyright.Subjecttostatutoryexception
andtotheprovisionsofrelevantcollectivelicensingagreements,
noreproductionofanypartmaytakeplacewithoutthewritten
permissionofCambridgeUniversityPress.
Firstpublished2014
PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica
AcatalogrecordforthispublicationisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary.
LibraryofCongressCataloginginPublicationData
Ansell,BenW.,1977–
Inequalityanddemocratization:anelite-competitionapproach/BenW.Ansell,
DavidJ.Samuels.
pages cm
ISBN978-1-107-00036-0(hardback)
1. Democracy—Economicaspects. 2. Democratization—Economicaspects.
3. Economicdevelopment—Politicalaspects. 4. Landtenure—Politicalaspects.
5. Incomedistribution—Politicalaspects. I. Samuels,David,1967– II. Title.
JC423.A578 2014
321.8–dc23 2014018359
ISBN978-1-107-00036-0Hardback
ISBN978-0-521-16879-3Paperback
CambridgeUniversityPresshasnoresponsibilityforthepersistenceoraccuracy
ofURLsforexternalorthird-partyInternetWebsitesreferredtointhispublication
anddoesnotguaranteethatanycontentonsuchWebsitesis,orwillremain,
accurateorappropriate.
Contents
ListofTables pagex
ListofFigures xii
Preface xv
1 Introduction 1
1.1 WhyDemocracy? 1
1.2 DemocracyorProperty?TheRedistributivistThesis 2
1.3 PuzzlesfortheRedistributivistApproach 4
1.4 DemocracyandProperty? 7
1.5 Democracy,Property,andEliteCompetition 9
1.6 PlanoftheBook 14
2 Inequality,Development,andDistribution 17
2.1 Introduction 17
2.2 InequalityandClassStructure:AThoughtExperiment 19
2.3 InequalityandClassStructure:HistoricalExamples 23
2.4 Conclusion:ImplicationsofSocialTables 34
3 ActorsandInterests 36
3.1 Introduction 36
3.2 Inequality,Income,andInterests 37
3.3 Inequality,Income,andInterestsandthe2ndReformAct 44
3.4 OtherCases 52
3.4.1 ImperialGermany 52
3.4.2 Nineteenth-CenturySweden 54
3.4.3 Twentieth-CenturySouthKorea 55
3.4.4 ContemporaryChina 57
3.5 Conclusion 59
vii
viii Contents
4 AnElite-CompetitionModelofDemocratization 61
4.1 Introduction 61
4.2 TheRedistributivistApproach 62
4.2.1 Introduction 62
4.2.2 Boix’sArgument 63
4.2.3 AcemogluandRobinson’sArgument 64
4.3 RethinkingAssumptions 65
4.4 AnElite-CompetitionModelofDemocratization 71
4.4.1 Introduction 71
4.4.2 TheEconomicModel 72
4.4.3 ThePoliticalModel 75
4.5 Conclusion 92
4.6 Appendix:ThinkingaboutAssetMobility 93
5 AssessingtheRelationshipbetweenInequalityandDemocratization 95
5.1 Introduction 95
5.2 QuantitativeResearchonInequalityandRegimeChange 95
5.3 DependentandIndependentVariables 98
5.3.1 ConceptualizingDemocracy 98
5.3.2 ConceptualizingInequality 99
5.3.3 ControlVariables 101
5.4 EmpiricalAnalysis 102
5.4.1 DemocracyasaDichotomousMeasure,1820to1992 102
5.4.2 DemocracyasaDichotomousMeasure,1955to1999 111
5.4.3 DemocracyasaContinuousMeasure,1820to1992 113
5.4.4 DemocracyasaContinuousMeasure,1955to2004 116
5.4.5 InstrumentalVariablesandChecksonExogeneity 118
5.5 Conclusion 122
6 InequalityandDemocratization:EmpiricalExtensions 124
6.1 Introduction 124
6.2 VarietiesofRegimes 124
6.2.1 Autocracy,PartialDemocracy,andFull
Democracy 125
6.2.2 PolityThresholds 126
6.2.3 DecomposingtheElementsofDemocracy 131
6.3 InequalityandRegimeChangeatDifferent
LevelsofDevelopment 132
6.4 TheImpactofAssetMobility 136
6.5 Conclusion 139
7 Democracy, Inequality, and Public Spending: Reassessing the
Evidence 141
7.1 Introduction 141
7.2 DemocracyandRedistribution:TheoreticalExpectations 142
Contents ix
7.3 Redistribution1880to1930:ReexaminingtheEvidence 146
7.3.1 Sample 148
7.3.2 DependentVariables 149
7.3.3 IndependentVariables 150
7.3.4 AggregatePublicSpending 151
7.3.5 DisaggregatingPublicSpending 157
7.3.6 Spending1880–1930:Summary 164
7.4 Findings:1950–1999 164
7.5 Conclusion 169
8 Democracy,Redistribution,andPreferences 171
8.1 Introduction 171
8.2 PreferencesoverRedistributionandDemocracy:Theory 172
8.3 PreferencesoverRedistribution:Empirics 177
8.3.1 DataandSample 178
8.3.2 Income,Inequality,andRedistributivePreferences 182
8.3.3 “Typical”RedistributivePreferencesandInequality 185
8.4 PreferencesoverDemocracy:Empirics 190
8.4.1 AttitudestowardStateOwnership 190
8.4.2 SupportforDemocracy:Expectations 191
8.4.3 AttitudestowardDemocracy 194
8.5 Conclusion:InterpretingOurResults 200
8.6 Appendix:EstimationTechniqueforTwo-StageAnalysis 201
9 Conclusion 203
Bibliography 211
Index 227