impact of rural financial services on food insecurity and alleviation of poverty, acase study of el

123 Pages·2007·0.55 MB·English

IMPACT OF RURAL FINANCIAL SERVICES ON
FOOD INSECURITY AND ALLEVIATION OF POVERTY,
ACASE STUDY OF EL NAHOUD CO- OPERATIVE CREDIT
PROJECT, SUDAN

By
Insaf Abdalla Abd alaziz Gaber alla
BSc (REED) Honours
Ahfad University For Women
April 2000

Thesis presented to the University of Khartoum in partial fulfilment of the
requirements for the M.Sc. (agric.) degree in the field of Agricultural
Extension and Rural Development

Supervisor: Dr Mutasim Abdalla Abd alla Osman
Associate Professor

Department of Agricultural Extension and Rural Development
Faculty of Agriculture
University of Khartoum
April 2006
Contents
Dedication ……………………………………………………………1
Acknowledgement……………………………………………..……. .ii
Abstract Arabic…………………………………………....……….…iii
Abstract English……………………………………………………..
Chapter one: Introduction
1.1 Background…………………………………………………… 1
1.2 Problem statement of the research …………………………… 3
1.3 The Scope of the study………………………………………...4
1.4 Objective of the study …………………………………………4
1.5 Justification ……………………………………………………5
1.6 Organization of the thesis …………………………………… 6
Chapter Two: Literature review
2-1 Concepts and connotation of rural development ………….…….. 7
2.1.1 Concept of food security …………………………….….…….. 9
2.1.2 Concept of household food security …………………………..10
2.1.3 Economic growth (development)……………………….……...11
2.1.4 Role of Agriculture in economic development…
2.2 Sustainable development ……………………………………… 13
2.2.1 Agricultural and Sustainability ………………………………. 14
2.2.2 Sustainable food security …………………………………… 15
2.2.3 Causes of food insecurity …………………………………… 16
2.3 The faces of food insecurity in the Sudan ………………………17
2.3.1 Dimension of food in Security …………………………...….. 18
2.3.2 Dimension and characterize of poverty and food insecurity ….19
2.3.3 History of Agricultural financial in Sudan ……………………20
2.4 The role of Micro - finance for food security and rural poverty
alleviation ……………………………………………………………21
2.4.1 Linking financial services with house hold security ……….….21
2.4.2 The role of rural finance for improving household food security …..22
2.4.3 Small scale loans and credit guaranties for rural areas………23
I
2.4.4 "Credit group" gains access to the formal banking sector …..24
2.4.5 potential and limits of some formal and informal finance
institution ………………………………………………………….25
2.4.6 Credit inputs ………………………………………………….26
2.5 The right to food ………………………………………………..29
2.5.1 Tacking hunger with human rights …………………………...30
2.5.2 Poverty Alleviation and food security ………………………..31
2.6 Access of the Rural power to resource………………………….31
2.6.1. Land…………………………………………………… ….…31
2.6.2 Infrastructure and social Services ……………………………33
2.6.3 Irrigation development for Alleviation for rural poverty …….34
2.6.4 Technology and Farming system for the rural Poor ………….35
2.6.5 Developing Technological system Directed to the rural poor ..36
2.6.6 Technology and farmer system and crop diversification….…36
2.6.7 Traditional crop development ……………………………..…36
2.6.8 Improving the access of rural poor transportation communication
and social services ………………………………………………...37
2.6.8.1 Transport and communication …………………………….37
2.6.8.2 Social services and nutrition ………………………………37
2.6.9 Access to resource market …………………………………..38
2.6.10 Access to labor, market and technology …………………...39
2.7 formal and informal financial services providers in rural finance
markets…………………………………………………………….39
2.7.1 Characteristic of rural financial market …………………….39
2.8 Saving first versus credit first ………………………………...40
2.8.1 The Importance of mobilizing saving for setting up rural financial
system …………………………………………………………....40
2.8.2 The role of savings for the rural poor …………………...…41
2.8.3 Mobilizing savings for micro – finance institutions ……………..42
II
2.9 The measurement of rural poverty of deprivation …………………43
2.9.1 National level indices of rural poverty …………………………..43
2.9.2 Poverty in household …………………………………………….44
2.9.3 Type of rural poverty …………………………………………….45
2.9.4 Type of rural poverty in Sudan …………………………………45
2.9.4.1 Location of poor in Sudan …………………………………….46
2.9.4.2 Consequences of poverty in Sudan …………………………...46
2.9.4.3 The Characteristics situation of rural poor in the Sudan ………47
2.9.5 Poverty food security and Agricultural development ……………47
2.9.6 Poverty and income..………………….………………………….48
2.10 Poverty and habitat ……………………………………………….49
Chapter three: Area of study:
3.1 Project background ………………………………………………..51
3.1.1 Location of the project …………………………………………..51
3.1.2 climate …………………………………………………………..52
3.1.3 Soil ………………………………………………………………52
3.1.4 Topography ………………………………………………………53
3.1.5 Economic setting ………………………………………………...53
3.1.6 Vegetation ………………………………………………………..54
3.1.7 Population ………………………………………………………..54
3.2 IFAD operation in the Sudan ………………………………………55
3.2.1 Strategy …………………………………………………………..55
3.2.2 Project objectives ………………………………………………...56
3.2.3 Design Project ……………………………………………………57
3.2.4 Project rationale ………………………………………………….57
3.3 Credit for the rural poor – IFAD experience ……………………….58
3.3.1 Project component ………………………………………………..59
3.3.1.1 Small holder credit ……………………………………………..59
3.3.1.2 Agricultural development services …………………………….59
III
3.3.1.3 Monitoring and evolution ………………………………..…….60
3.4 Organization at Grass root - level …………………………….…...60
3.4.1 The Agricultural cooperative …………………………….…….60
3.4.2 The Agricultural groups …………………………………….…...61
3.4.3 Management board ………………………………………….…...61
3.5 Distribution of credit by activities …………………………………62
3.5.1 Traditional rain fed agriculture …………………………………..62
3.5.2 Purchase rehabilitation and maintenance water yard ……………62
3.5.3 Livestock components ……………………………………….…..63
3.5.4 Women in development …………………………………………63
3.5.5 Artisans loan ………………………………………………….….64
Chapter four: The Research Methodology
4.1 Site select and village sample ……………………………………..65
4.2 Sample selection and size ………………………………………….66
4.3 Data collection procedure ………………………………………….66
4.4 Data analysis procedure ……………………………………………67
4.5 The general research hypotheses …………………………………...68
4.5.1 hypothesis related to casual modern ……………………………..96
Chapter five: Result and Discussion
5.1 general Characteristic of respondent in En Nahoud Area……….…71
5.2result of statistical analysis for testing the conceptual model….…112
Chapter five: Summary, conclusion and Recommendation
6.1 Summary of the Finding and Conclusion……………….…….….142
6.2 Recommendation…………………………………………...…….147
Reference……………………………………………………………..150
Questionnaire………………………………………………………...159

IV
Dedication

To:

Soul of My father and

Everyone who taught me a letter and to all farmers

V
Acknowledgement

Special appreciation and thank are extended to Dr Awadalla
Mutasim Abdalla Osmans, university of Khartoum, for greater support
and supervision
I wish to record my feelings of deep gratitude and indebtedness to
my father Abd alla Abd alaziz for his support and encouragement
Finally, I wish to extend warm thanks to all those whose names
are not mentioned here, which encouraged or supported me in different
ways during the preparation of this thesis

VI
ﻢﻴﺣﺮﻟا ﻦﻤﺣﺮﻟا ﷲا ﻢﺴﺑ
ﺔﺣوﺮﻃﻻا ﺔﺻﻼﺧ

ﻦ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻣﻻا ﻖ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻴﻘﺤﺗو ﺮ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻘﻔﻟا ﺔ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻟازا ﻰ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻓ ﻰ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻔﻳﺮﻟا ﻞ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟا تﺎﻣﺪ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺧ ﺮ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺛا ﺮﻳﺪ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻘﺘﻟ ﺔ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺳارﺪﻟا ﻩﺬ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ه ﺖ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻳﺮﺟا
ةﺪ(cid:1127)ﻠﻳز ﻰ(cid:1127)ﻓ ةﺮﺛﺆ(cid:1127)ﻤﻟاو ﺔﻄﺒﺗﺮﻤﻟا ﻞﻣاﻮﻌﻟا ﺪﻳﺪﺤﺘﻟ و نادﻮﺴﻟا ,نﺎﻓدﺮآ بﺮﻏ , دﻮﻬﻨﻟا ﺔﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻰﻓ ﻰﺋاﺬﻐﻟا
.ﻰﻋارﺰﻟا جﺎﺘﻧﻻاو ﻞﺧﺪﻟا
ﻦﻴﻋراﺰ(cid:1127)ﻤﻟا ﻰ(cid:1127)ﻠﻋ ﻰ(cid:1127)ﻋارﺰﻟا ﺔﺻﺎﺧو ﻰﻔﻳﺮﻟا ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟا ﺮﺛا ﻖﻴﺛﻮ ﺘﻟ ﺔﻟوﺎﺤﻣ ﺔﺳارﺪﻟا ﻩﺬه ﻞﺜﻤﺗ
ﻰ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻓ ﺖ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻠﺧدا ﻰ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺘﻟا تﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻴﻨﻘﺘﻟا ﺔ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺮﻳﻮ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻄﺘﻟ ﺔ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻴﻋارﺰﻟا ثﻮ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺤﺒﻟا تﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻄﺤﻣو تﺎﺴ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺳﺆﻤﻠﻟ ﺔﻴ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺻﻮﺗ ﻊ(cid:1127)ﻓرو
.ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟا ةﺮﺘﻓ تﻼﺧ ﺔﻘﻄﻨﻤﻟا
ﺮ(cid:1127)ﺒﻋ ﻞ(cid:1127)ﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟا تﺎﻣﺪ(cid:1127)ﺧ ﺞﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﺔﻄﺳاﻮﺑ ﺎﻬﻤﻋد ﻢﺗ ﻲﺘﻟا ةرﺎﺘﺨﻣ ىﺮﻗ ﻊﺒﺳ ﺔﺳارﺪﻟا ﺖﻓﺪﻬﺘﺳا
ﻰ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻓ نﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻓدﺮآ بﺮ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻏ ﺔ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻳﻻﻮﺑ ﺔ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻴﻌﻴﺒﻄﻟا داﻮ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻤﻟاو ﺔ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻋارﺰﻟا ةرازوو ﻰ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻋارﺰﻟا ﻞ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻳﻮﻤﺘﻠﻟ دﻮ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻬﻨﻟا عوﺮﺸ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻣ
.م1999-1987 ﻦﻣ ةﺮﺘﻔﻟا
ﺔ(cid:1127)ﻨﻴﻌﻟا ﻞﻤﺸ(cid:1127)ﺗ و ﺔﻳﺮﻗ ﻞآ ﻰﻓ لﺎﺟﺮﻟاو ءﺎﺴﻨﻠﻟ ىوﺎﺴﺘﻣ ﻞﻴﺜﻤﺗ ﻊﻣ فﺪﻬﺘﺴﻣ 69 ﺔﻨﻴﻌﻟا ﺖﻠﻤﺷ
ﻢ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺗ ﺪ(cid:1127)ﻘﻟو , عوﺮﺸ(cid:1127)ﻤﻟا ﺪ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻌﺑو ﻞ(cid:1127)ﺒﻗ ﺔ(cid:1127)ﻋارﺰﻟا ﺔ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻨﻬﻣ نﻮ(cid:1127)ﺳرﺎﻤﻳو عوﺮﺸ(cid:1127)ﻤﻟا ﻦ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻣ ودﺎﻔﺘ(cid:1127)ﺳا ﻦﻳﺬ(cid:1127)ﻟا ﻦﻳﺪﻴﻔﺘﺴ(cid:1127)ﻤﻟا
. (SPSS) ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﻼﻟ مﻮﻠﻌﻠﻟ ﺔﻴﺋﺎﺼﺣﻹا مﺰﺤﻟا ﺐﺳﺎﺤﻟا ﺞﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ماﺪﺨﺘﺳﺎﺑ تﺎﻧﺎﻴﺒﻟا ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ
ﻞ(cid:1127)ﺒﻗ ﻦﻴﺗﺮ(cid:1127)ﺘﻔﻟا ﻦﻴ(cid:1127)ﺑ ﺔ(cid:1127)ﻳﻮﻨﻌﻣ تﺎ(cid:1127)ﻗوﺮﻓ دﻮ(cid:1127)ﺟو مﺪ(cid:1127)ﻋ T.test (ت) تارﺎ(cid:1127)ﺒﺘﺧا ﺞﺋﺎ(cid:1127)ﺘﻧ ﺖﺤ(cid:1127)ﺿوا
ﻞﻴ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺻﺎﺤﻤﻟا تﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻔﻠﺨﻣ ﻦ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻣ ةدﺎﻔﺘ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺳﻻاو ماﺪﺨﺘ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺳا, لﻮﺼ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺤﻤﻟا ﻞ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻴﺣﺮﺗ ﻲ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻓ ﻲﻠﻳﻮ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻤﺘﻟا عوﺮﺸ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻤﻟا ﺪ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻌﺑو
.ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﻻا ﺔﻟﺎﺤﻟاو, ﺔﻴﻋارﺰﻟا ﻞﻴﺻﺎﺤﻤﻟا ﻖﻳﻮﺴﺗ قﺮﻃ, ﺔﻴﻋارﺰﻟا
ﻞ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺒﻗ ﻦﻴﺗﺮ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺘﻔﻟا ﻦﻴ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺑ ﺔ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻳﻮﻨﻌﻣ تﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻗوﺮﻓ دﻮ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺟو T.test (ت) ﻞ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﺖﺤ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺿوأ ﺎﻀ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻳأ
ﻊ(cid:1127)ﻳﻮﻨﺗ, ﺔ(cid:1127)ﻋرﺰﻤﻟا ﻢ(cid:1127)ﺠﺣ , ﺔ(cid:1127)ﻴﻋارﺰﻟا ﻞﻴ(cid:1127)ﺻﺎﺤﻤﻟا جﺎ(cid:1127)ﺘﻧا ﺔﻴﻤآ ﻰﻓ ﺔﻘﻄﻨﻤﻟا ﻰﻓ ﻰﻠﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟا عوﺮﺸﻤﻟا ﺪﻌﺑو
, رﺎ(cid:1127)ﺧدﻻا, ﺔ(cid:1127)ﻟﺎﻤﻌﻟا ﻊ(cid:1127)ﻳﻮﻨﺗ, ﻲ ﺋاﺬ(cid:1127)ﻐﻟا ﻦ(cid:1127)ﻣﻷا ﻊ(cid:1127)ﺿو, ةﺮ(cid:1127)ﺳﻷا ﻞ(cid:1127)ﺧد , ةﺮ(cid:1127)ﺳﻸﻟ ﻰﺋاﺬ(cid:1127)ﻐﻟا كﻼﻬﺘﺳﻻا ﺔﻴﻤآو
دﻮ(cid:1127)ﻬﻨﻟا ﺞﻣﺎ(cid:1127)ﻧﺮﺑ ﺪﻌﺑ ﻦﻴﻋراﺰﻤﻟا نأ ﺔﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﻰﻟ إ ﻦﻳﺎﺒﺘﻟا اﺬه ىﺰﻌﻳو , ﺔﻴﻤﻠﻌﻟا ﺔﻴﻨﻘﺘﻟا ﻰﻨﺒﺗ و ﺐﻳرﺪﺘﻟا
ﻞﺧﺪ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻟا ةدﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻳز جﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻧﺮﺑو ﻞ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻳﻮﻤﺗ تﺎﻣﺪ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺧ ﻰ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻟا ﺮ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺜآا اﻮ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺿﺮﻌﺗ ﺪ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻗ (ENCCP) ) ﻰ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻋارﺰﻟا ﻞ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻳﻮﻤﺘﻠﻟ
جﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺘﻧ ﻻا ةدﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻳز ﻰ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻠﻋ عوﺮﺸ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻤﻟا ﺰ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻴآﺮﺗ لﻼ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺧ ﻦ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻣ ﻚ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻟذو ﻪ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻠﺒﻗ ﻦ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻣ ﺮ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺒآا عوﺮﺸ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻤﻟا لﻼ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺧ دﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺷرﻻاو
.ﺐﻳرﺪﺘﻟاو ﻞﺧﺪﻟاو
روﺬ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺒﻟا ﻰ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻨﺒﺘﻟ دﻮ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻬﻨﻟا ﺔ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻘﻄﻨﻤﺑ ﻦﻴﻋراﺰ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻤﻠﻟ ﻰﻟﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻋ ﻩﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺠﺗا دﻮ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺟو ﺔ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺳارﺪﻟا ﺖﺤ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺿوا
تﺎ(cid:1127)ﻴﻨﻘﺗ ﻰ(cid:1127)ﻨﺒﺘﻟ ﺮ(cid:1127)ﺜآا ﺞﺋﺎ(cid:1127)ﺘﻨﻟا ﻢﻬﺘﻌﺠﺷ ﺔﻴﻠﻘﺣ برﺎﺠﺗ ﺖﻳﺮﺟا ﺪﻗو عوﺮﺸﻤﻟا ةﺮﺘﻓ ﺪﻌﺑو لﻼﺧ ﺔﻨﺴﺤﻤﻟا
.ﺔﻨﺴﺤﻤﻟا روﺬﺒﻟاو جﺎﺘﻧﻻا
VII
جﺎ(cid:1127)ﺘﻧا دادزا دﻮ(cid:1127)ﻬﻨﻟا ﺔ(cid:1127)ﻘ ﻄﻨﻣ ﻰ(cid:1127)ﻓ عوﺮﺸ(cid:1127)ﻤﻟا ﺪﻌﺑو لﻼﺧ ةﺮﺘﻔﻟا نا ﺔﺳارﺪﻟا ﺖﻨﻴﺑ ﺪﻘﻟو
ﻊ(cid:1127)ﻳﻮﻨﺗو جﺎ(cid:1127)ﺘﻧﻻ ﺔﻨﺴ(cid:1127)ﺤﻤﻟا روﺬ(cid:1127)ﺒﻟا ﻰﻨﺒﺗ ﻩﺎﺠﺗ ﻢﻬﻘﻓﻮﻣ ناو , ﺔﻋورﺰﻤﻟا ﺔﺣﺎﺴﻤﻟاو ﺔﻴﻋارﺰﻟا ﻞﻴﺻﺎﺤﻤﻟا
ﻖ(cid:1127)ﻠﻌﺘﻳ ﺎ(cid:1127)ﻤﺑ ﺦ(cid:1127)ﺳاﺮﻟا ﻢﻬﻧﺎ(cid:1127)ﻤﻳﺎﺑ ﺔ(cid:1127)ﻗﻼﻋ ﺎ(cid:1127)ﻬﻟ ﻞ(cid:1127)ﻣاﻮﻌﺑ تﺮﺛﺎ(cid:1127)ﺗ ﺎ(cid:1127)ﻬﻧا تﺪ(cid:1127)ﺟو ﺎﻬﺘﺳارد ﺖﻤﺗ ﻰﺘﻟا ﻞﻴﺻﺎﺤﻤﻟا
ﺔ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻴﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﻻا فوﺮ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻈﻟا ﻰ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻠﻋ ﻞﻜ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺷ عﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻨﻗﻻا اﺬ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ه , ﻰ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻋارﺰﻟا ﻞ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟا تﺎﻣﺪ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺧ ىوﺎﺴ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻣو ﻦ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺳﺎﺤﻤﺑ
تﻼﺧﺪ(cid:1127)ﻤﻟا ﺮﻴﻓﻮ(cid:1127)ﺘﺑ ﻞ (cid:1127)ﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟا تﺎﻣﺪ(cid:1127)ﺧ ﺮﻴﻓﻮﺗ ةروﺮﻀﺑ ﻢﻬآارداو ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﻻا تاﺪﻘﺘﻌﻤﻟاو ﺔﻳدﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻاو
.ﺔﻘﻄﻨﻤﻟا ﺔﻌﻴﺒﻄﺑ ﺔﻤﺋﻼﻤﻟا ﺔﺑﻮﻠﻄﻤﻟا
ﻊ(cid:1127)ﻳﻮﻨﺗو رﺎ(cid:1127)ﻴﺘﺧﺎﺑ اﻮ(cid:1127)ﻔﻇو ﺔ(cid:1127)ﻘﻄﻨﻤﻟا ﻰ(cid:1127)ﻓ ﻦﻴﻋراﺰ(cid:1127)ﻤﻟا نا ﺔ(cid:1127)ﺳارﺪﻟا ﺞﺋﺎ(cid:1127)ﺘﻧ ﺖﺤ(cid:1127)ﺿوا ﺪﻘﻟ
راردا راﺮﻤﺘ(cid:1127)ﺳاو ﻦﻴﻣﺎ(cid:1127)ﺘﻟ ﻰ(cid:1127)ﻋارﺰﻟا ﺮ(cid:1127)ﻴﻏو ﻰ(cid:1127)ﻋارﺰﻟا طﺎﺸ(cid:1127)ﻨﻟا ﻞﻣﺎﻜﺗ ﺮﺒﻋ مﺎﻌﻟا لﻼﺧ ﻞﻤﻌﻟا تﺎﻃﺎﺸﻧ
. ﻞﺧﺪﻟا
ﺮ(cid:1127)ﺳﻻ ﻰﺋاﺬﻐﻟا كﻼﻬﺘﺳﻻا نا (Correlation) طﺎﺒﺗرﻻا ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﺔﺳارد ﺞﺋﺎﺘﻧ ﺖﺤﺿوا ﺪﻘﻟ
ﻰﺑﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺠﻳا طﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺒﺗرا ﻂﺒﺗﺮ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻳ (ENCCP) ﻞ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟا عوﺮﺸ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻣ تﺎﻣﺪ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺧ ﻦ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻣ ةدﺎﻔﺘ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺳﻻا ﺪ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻌﺑ ﻦﻴﻋراﺰ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻤﻟا
ﻰ(cid:1127)ﻓ ﺖ(cid:1127)ﻠﺧدا ﻰ(cid:1127)ﺘﻟا ﺔ(cid:1127)ﺜﻳﺪﺤﻟا ﺔ(cid:1127)ﻴﻨﻘﺘﻟ ا ﻰ(cid:1127)ﻨﺒﺗ , ﺔ(cid:1127)ﻋرﺰﻤﻟا جﺎ(cid:1127)ﺘﻧا , ةﺮ(cid:1127)ﺳﻻا ﻞ(cid:1127)ﺧد , ةﺮﺳﻻا ﻢﺠﺣ ﻊﻣ ىﻮﻨﻌﻣو
ﺞﻣﺎ(cid:1127)ﻧﺮﺑ ﻞ(cid:1127)ﺒﻗ ةﺮ(cid:1127)ﺳﻻا كﻼﻬﺘ(cid:1127)ﺳا ﻰ(cid:1127)ﻠﻋ ﺎﺒﻠ(cid:1127)ﺳ ﺮﺛﺆ(cid:1127)ﻳ ةﺮ(cid:1127)ﺳﻻا ﻢ(cid:1127)ﺠﺣ نا ﺔ(cid:1127)ﺳارﺪﻟا ﺖﺤﺿوا ﺪﻘﻟو , ﺔﻘﻄﻨﻤﻟا
. ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟا
ﺪ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻌﺑ ﻰﺋاﺬ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻐﻟا ﻦ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻣﻻا ﻊ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺿو نا (Correlation) طﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺒﺗرﻻا ﻞ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﺔ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺳارد ﺖﺤ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺿوا ﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻤآ
, ةﺮ(cid:1127)ﺳﻻ ﻰﺋاﺬ(cid:1127)ﻐﻟا كﻼﻬﺘ(cid:1127)ﺳﻻا , ﺔ(cid:1127)ﻋرﺰﻤﻟا ﻢ(cid:1127)ﺠﺣ ﻊ(cid:1127)ﻣ ﺎﻳﻮﻨﻌﻣو ﺎﻴﺑﺎﺠﻳا ﺎﻃﺎﺒﺗرا ﻂﺒﺗﺮﻳ ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟا ﺞﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ
ىﻮﺘﺴ(cid:1127)ﻤﻟا نا ﺎﻀ(cid:1127)ﻳا ﺔ(cid:1127)ﺳارﺪﻟا ﺖﺤ(cid:1127)ﺿوا ﺪ(cid:1127)ﻘﻟو , ﺔ(cid:1127)ﻋرﺰﻤﻟا جﺎ(cid:1127)ﺘﻧاو ةﺮ(cid:1127)ﺳﻻا ﻞﺧد , ةﺮﺳﻻا داﺮﻓا رﺎﻤﻋا
ﻞ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﺔ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺳارد ﺖﺤ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺿوا ﺪ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻘﻟ و . ﻰﺋاﺬ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻐﻟا ﻦ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻣﻻا ﻊ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺿو ﻰ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻠﻋ ﺎﻴﺒﻠ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺳ ﺮﺛﺆ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻳ ةﺮ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺳﻻا داﺮ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻓﻻ ﻰ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻤﻴﻠﻌﺘﻟا
ﻞ(cid:1127)ﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟا ﺞﻣﺎ(cid:1127)ﻧﺮﺑ ﻞ(cid:1127)ﺒﻗ كﻼﻬ ﺘ(cid:1127)ﺳﻻا ﻰ(cid:1127)ﻠﻋ ﺎﻴﺒﻠ(cid:1127)ﺳ ﺮﺛﺆ(cid:1127)ﻳ ﺔ(cid:1127)ﻋرﺰﻤﻟا جﺎ(cid:1127)ﺘﻧا نا (Correlation) طﺎﺒﺗرﻻا
. ﺔﻘﻄﻨﻤﻟا ﻰﻋارﺰﻟا
ﻦﻳﺪﻔﺘﺴ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻤﻠﻟ ةﺮ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺳﻻا ﻞ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺧد ىﻮﺘﺴ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻣ نا (Correlation) طﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺒﺗرﻻا ﻞ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﺞﺋﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺘﻧ تﺮ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻬﻇا
ﺔ(cid:1127)ﻴﻨﻘﺘﻟا ﻰ(cid:1127)ﻨﺒﺗو عراﺰ(cid:1127)ﻤﻟا ﺮ(cid:1127)ﻤﻋ , ﺔ(cid:1127)ﻋرﺰﻤﻟا جﺎ(cid:1127)ﺘﻧا , ﺔ(cid:1127)ﻋرﺰﻤﻟا ﻢﺠﺣ ﻊﻣ ﺎﻳﻮﻨﻌﻣو ﺎﻴﺑﺎﺠﻳا ﺎﻃﺎﺒﺗرا ﻂﺒﺗﺮﻳ
ىﻮﺘﺴ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻣ ﻰ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻠﻋ ﺎﻴﺒﻠ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺳ ﺮﺛﺆ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻳ ةﺮ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺳﻻا ﻢ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺠﺣ نا ﺎﻀ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻳاﺔﺳارﺪﻟا تﺮ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻬﻇا ﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻤآ , ﺔ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻘﻄﻨﻤﻟا ﻰ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻓ ﺖ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻠﺧدا ﻰ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺘﻟا
.ﻞﺧﺪﻟا
ةﺮ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺳﻻا ﻞ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺧد ىﻮﺘﺴ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻣ نا (Correlation) طﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺒﺗرﻻا ﻞ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﺞﺋﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺘﻧ ﺔ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺳارد ﺖﺤ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺿوا ﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻤآ
ﻊ(cid:1127)ﻣ ﺎﻴﺒﻠ(cid:1127)ﺳ ﺮﺛﺆ(cid:1127)ﻳو , ﺔ(cid:1127)ﻋرﺰﻤﻟا ﻢ(cid:1127)ﺠﺣ , ﺔ(cid:1127)ﻋرﺰﻤﻟا جﺎ(cid:1127)ﺘﻧا ﻊ(cid:1127)ﻣ ﺎﻳﻮﻨﻌﻣو ﺎﻴﺑﺎﺠﻳا ﺎﻃﺎﺒﺗرا ﻂﺒﺗﺮﻳ ﻦﻳﺪﻴﻔﺘﺴﻤﻠﻟ
.ةﺮﺳﻻا ﻢﺠﺣو ﻢﻴﻠﻌﺘﻟا ىﻮﺘﺴﻣ
VIII
ﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻃﺎﺒﺗرا ﻂﺒﺗﺮ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻳ ﺔ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻋرﺰﻤﻟا جﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺘﻧا نا (Correlation) طﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺒﺗرﻻا ﻞ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﺔ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺳارد ﺖ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻨﻴﺑ ﺪ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻗو
ﻢ(cid:1127)ﺠﺣ ﻊ(cid:1127)ﻣ ﻰ(cid:1127)ﻠﻋ ﺎﻴﺒﻠ(cid:1127)ﺳ ﺮﺛﺎ(cid:1127)ﺘﻳ و , عراﺰ(cid:1127)ﻤﻟا ﺮ(cid:1127)ﻤﻋو تﺎ(cid:1127)ﻴﻨﻘﺘﻟا ﻰ(cid:1127)ﻨﺒﺗ , ﺔﻋرﺰﻤﻟا ﻢﺠﺣ ﻊﻣ ﺎﻳﻮﻨﻌﻣو ﺎﻴﺑﺎﺠﻳا
. ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟا ﺞﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﺪﻌﺑ ةﺮﺳﻻا
ﻂﺒﺗﺮ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻳ ﺔ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺜﻳﺪﺤﻟا تﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻴﻨﻘﺘﻟا ﻰ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻨﺒﺗ نا (Correlation) طﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺒﺗرﻻا ﻞ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﺔ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺳارد ﺖ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻨﻴﺑ ﺪ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻗو
ﻞ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟا ﺞﻣﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻧﺮﺑ ﺪ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻌﺑ ةﺮ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺳﻻا ﻢ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺠﺣو عراﺰ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻤﻠﻟ ﻰ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻤﻴﻠﻌﺘﻟا ىﻮﺘﺴ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻤﻟا ﻊ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻣ ﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻳﻮﻨ ﻌﻣو ﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻴﺑﺎﺠﻳا ﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻃﺎﺒﺗرا
ﻰ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻓ ﻞ(cid:1127)ﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟا ﺞﻣﺎ(cid:1127)ﻧﺮﺑ ﻞ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺒﻗ ةﺮ(cid:1127)ﺳﻻا ﻢ(cid:1127)ﺠﺣو عراﺰ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻤﻠﻟ ﻰ(cid:1127)ﻤﻴﻠﻌﺘﻟا ىﻮﺘﺴ(cid:1127)ﻤﻟا ﻊ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻣ ﺎﻴﺒﻠ(cid:1127)ﺳ ﺮﺛﺎ(cid:1127)ﺘﻳ و , ﻰ(cid:1127)ﻋارﺰﻟا
. ﺔﻘﻄﻨﻤﻟا
ﻖ(cid:1127)ﻴﺒﻄﺘﺑو (stepwise regression) راﺪ(cid:1127)ﺤﻧا لﺎﻤﻌﺘ(cid:1127)ﺳا ﺔﻄ(cid:1127)ﺳاﻮﺑ ﺖ(cid:1127)ﻨﻴﺑ ﻞ(cid:1127)ﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟا ﺮ(cid:1127)ﺛأ ﻢﻴ(cid:1127)ﻴﻘﺗ
ﻖ(cid:1127)ﻴﻘﺤﺗو ﺮ(cid:1127)ﻘﻔﻟا ﻒﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟ ﺮﺷﺎﺒﻣ ﺮﻴﻏ وا اﺮﺷﺎﺒﻣ اﺮﻴﺛﺎﺗ ﺮﺛﺆﺗ ﻰﺘﻟا ﻞﻣاﻮﻌﻟا ﺪﻳﺪﺤﺘ ﻟ ﻚﻠﻟذو رﺎﺴﻤﻟا ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ
نا ﺪ(cid:1127)ﺟو . ﺔ(cid:1127)ﻘﻄﻨﻤﻟا ﻰ(cid:1127)ﻓ ﻰ(cid:1127)ﻔﻳﺮﻟا ﻞ(cid:1127)ﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟا ﺞﻣﺎ(cid:1127)ﻧﺮﺑ ﺪ(cid:1127)ﻌﺑو ﻞ(cid:1127)ﺒﻗ ﻦﻴﻴﻔﻳﺮ(cid:1127)ﻟا ﻦﻴﻋراﺰ(cid:1127)ﻤﻟا ﻂﺳو ﻰﺋاﺬﻐﻟا ﻦﻣﻻا
ﻦ(cid:1127)ﻣﻻا ﻰ(cid:1127)ﻠﻋ ةﺮﺛﺆ(cid:1127)ﻤﻟا ﻞ(cid:1127)ﻣاﻮﻌﻟا ﻦ(cid:1127)ﻣ ﺔ(cid:1127)ﻴﻤﻠﻌﻟا تﺎﺛﺪﺤﺘﺴ(cid:1127)ﻤﻟا ﻰ(cid:1127)ﻨﺒﺗ و , ﺔ(cid:1127)ﻋورﺰﻤﻟا ﺔﺣﺎﺴﻤﻟا , جﺎﺘﻧﻻا ﺔﻴﻤآ
ﻢ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺳﻮﻤﻟا) مﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻌﻟا لﻼ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺧ ﻞ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻤﻌﻟا صﺮ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻓ ﺔﻣاﺪﺘ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺳا ﺪ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺟو ﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻤﻨﻴﺑ . ﻦﻴﻴﻔﻳﺮ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻟا ﻦﻴﻋراﺰ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻤﻟا ﻂ (cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺳو ﻰﺋاﺬ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻐﻟا
ﻞ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻣاﻮﻌﻟا ﻦ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻣ ﻰ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻤﻴﻠﻌﺘﻟا ىﻮﺘﺴ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻤﻟاو ةﺮ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺳﻻا ﻢ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺠﺣ , ﻰﺋاﺬ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻐﻟا ﻦ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻣﻻاو ,( ﻰ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻋارﺰﻟا ﺮ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻴﻏو ﻰ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻋارﺰﻟا
.ةﺮﺳﻻا ﻞﺧد ﻰﻠﻋ ةﺮﺛﺆﻤﻟا
رﺎ(cid:1127)ﻴﺘﺧاو ﻦﻴﻋراﺰ(cid:1127)ﻤﻟا تﺎ(cid:1127)ﻴﻌﻤﺟ ﺔﻄ(cid:1127)ﺳاﻮﺑ ﺮ(cid:1127)ﺜآا مﺎ(cid:1127)ﻤﺘها ﻪﻴﺟﻮﺗ ﺔﺳارﺪﻟا ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺞﺋﺎﺘﻧ ﺖﺣﺮﺘﻗا
ﺔ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻴﻤﻨﺗو جﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺘﻧﻻا ﻰ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻠﻋ ةﺮﺛﺆ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻤﻟا ﻞ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻣاﻮﻌﻟاو ﻞﺧﺪ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻟا ةدﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻳز ﻊﻳرﺎﺸ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻣو ﻰ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻋارﺰﻟا جﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺘﻧﻻا ﻞ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻳﻮﻤﺗ ﺮﻳﻮ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻄﺗو
ﺔ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻴﻤﻠﻌﻟا ﺔ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻓﺮﻌﻤﻟا ﺮﻴﻓﻮ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺗ ﺔ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻴﻤها ﻞ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺜﻣ ﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻬﻘﻴﺛﻮﺗو ﺔ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻴﻠﺤﻤﻟا ﺔ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺌﻴﺒﻠﻟ ﺔ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻤﺋﻼﻤﻟا ﺔ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺛورﻮﻤﻟا ﺔ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻓﺮﻌﻤﻟا تاﺮ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻜﺘﺒﻣ
ﺔﻴ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺻﻮﺗ ﻊ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻓرو ﻞﺧﺪ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻟاو جﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺘﻧﻻا ةدﺎ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻳز ﻰ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻓ ةﺮﺛﺆ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻣ ﻞ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻣاﻮﻋ 4 ﺔ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﺳارﺪﻟا ﺖ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻘﺛو .ﻦﻴﻋراﺰ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻤﻠﻟ ﺔ(cid:1127)(cid:1127)ﻤﺋﻼﻤﻟا
.ﺔﻴﻤﻠﻌﻟا ثﻮﺤﺒﻟا ﺔﻄﺳاﻮﺑ ﺎﻬﺘﺳادو ﺎهﺮﻳﻮﻄﺗو ﺎﻬﺘﺑﺮﺠﺘﻟ

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