Table Of Content“The editors deserve our gratitude for having assembled these wide-ranging essays. They
offer fascinating perspectives on a topic that could hardly be more important for human-
ity—but which has received far less systematic attention than it merits. Let’s hope this book
will raise awareness of these possible catastrophes, and thereby help ensure a safer world.”
—Martin Rees, Astronomer Royal, University of Cambridge, and
Centre for the Study of Existential Risk
Author of If Science Is to Save Us, Our Final Hour, From Here to
Infinity, and On the Future
“How did ancient societies crash or reinvent themselves? Can we learn from that? History
rhymes. For the ones interested in the search for patterns, this book is a treasure trove.”
—Marten Scheffer, Wageningen University and Santa Fe Institute
Author of Critical Transitions in Nature and Society
“This must-read volume on collapse presents twenty original contributions from some of
the best thinkers on the topic. The chapters explore collapse theory, case studies on individ-
ual historical collapses, and how things might change for humanity in the future. Collapse
is considered from a range of perspectives: theoretical, historical, ecological, and modeling,
providing an important multidisciplinary introduction. It will keep the increasingly impor-
tant debate on collapse and transformation in the spotlight for some time to come.”
—Guy D. Middleton, University of Newcastle upon Tyne
Author of Understanding Collapse: Ancient History and Modern Myths
How Worlds Collapse
As our society confronts the impacts of globalization and global systemic risks—
such as financial contagion, climate change, and epidemics—what can studies
of the past tell us about our present and future? How Worlds Collapse offers case
studies of societies that either collapsed or overcame cataclysmic adversity. The
authors in this volume find commonalities between past civilizations and our
current society, tracing patterns, strategies, and early warning signs that can
inform decision-making today. While today’s world presents unique challenges,
many mechanisms, dynamics, and fundamental challenges to the foundations
of civilization have been consistent throughout history—highlighting essential
lessons for the future.
Miguel A. Centeno is Musgrave Professor of Sociology at Princeton
University and Executive Vice Dean of Princeton University’s School of
Public and International Affairs. He is founder and co-director of the Princeton
Institute for International and Regional Studies (PIIRS) Global Systemic Risk
research community.
Peter W. Callahan is a graduate of Princeton University who earned his
MS in Geography and Environmental Studies from the University of New
Mexico. He is a researcher at Princeton’s PIIRS Global Systemic Risk research
community where his scholarly interests include the study of socio-ecologi-
cal systems, historical systemic risks, sustainable development, and renewable
energy policy and technology.
Paul A. Larcey is co-director of the PIIRS Global Systemic Risk research
community at Princeton University. Larcey’s work with the UK’s innovation
agency focuses on key emerging technologies including life sciences, quantum
technologies, and AI. He has worked in corporate research, venture capital,
and global industrial sectors at board and senior levels and studied engineering,
materials science, and finance at London, Oxford, and Cambridge Universities.
Thayer S. Patterson is coordinator and a founding member of the PIIRS
Global Systemic Risk research community at Princeton University. Following
his studies in economics and mechanical engineering at Yale, and finance at
Princeton’s Bendheim Center for Finance, his research has focused on the
causes and consequences of catastrophic systemic risk.
How Worlds Collapse
What History, Systems, and Complexity
Can Teach Us About Our Modern World and
Fragile Future
Edited by Miguel A. Centeno,
Peter W. Callahan, Paul A. Larcey,
Thayer S. Patterson
First published 2023
by Routledge
605 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10158
and by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon, OX14 4RN
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
© 2023 Taylor & Francis
The right of Miguel A. Centeno, Peter W. Callahan, Paul A. Larcey, Thayer
S. Patterson to be identified as the authors of the editorial material, and of
the authors for their individual chapters, has been asserted in accordance with
sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or
utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now
known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in
any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing
from the publishers.
Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered
trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent
to infringe.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names: Centeno, Miguel Angel, 1957- editor.
Title: How Worlds Collapse/edited by Miguel A. Centeno [and three others].
Description: New York, NY: Routledge, 2023. | Includes bibliographical
references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2022036785 | ISBN 9781032363257 (hbk) |
ISBN 9781032363219 (pbk) | ISBN 9781003331384 (ebk)
Subjects: LCSH: Disasters–History. | Emergency management–History. |
Emergency management–Decision making. | Social systems–History.
Classification: LCC D24 .H555 2023 | DDC 363.34/8068–dc23/
eng/20221122
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2022036785
ISBN: 978-1-032-36325-7 (hbk)
ISBN: 978-1-032-36321-9 (pbk)
ISBN: 978-1-003-33138-4 (ebk)
DOI: 10.4324/9781003331384
Typeset in Bembo
by Deanta Global Publishing Services, Chennai, India
Cover image: Shutterstock, Ancient Roman town in Palmyra, Syria
For Deborah Nichols
Contents
Acknowledgement xii
Authors xiv
Introduction 1
MIGUEL A. CENTENO, PETER W. CALLAHAN, PAUL A. LARCEY, AND
THAYER S. PATTERSON
SECTION 1
Theory and Insights of Historical Collapse 3
1 Globalization and Fragility: A Systems Approach to Collapse 5
MIGUEL A. CENTENO, PETER W. CALLAHAN, PAUL A. LARCEY, AND THAYER S.
PATTERSON
2 How Scholars Explain Collapse 25
JOSEPH A. TAINTER
3 Diminishing Returns on Extraction: How Inequality and
Extractive Hierarchy Create Fragility 37
LUKE KEMP
4 Collapse, Recovery, and Existential Risk 61
HAYDN BELFIELD
SECTION 2
Historical and Archaeological Investigations of Collapse 93
5 “Mind the Gap”: The 1177 BCE Late Bronze Age Collapse
and Some Preliminary Thoughts on Its Immediate Aftermath 97
ERIC H. CLINE
