Hopes and Fears: The Future of the Internet (Volume 2)

485 Pages·2008·1.31 MB·English

by  Janna Quitney Anderson, Lee Rainie,  Harrison Rainie

H F
OPES AND EARS

H F
OPES AND EARS
The Future of the Internet
Volume 2
LEE RAINIE
AND
JANNA QUITNEY ANDERSON
AMHERST, NEW YORK
Copyright 2008 Janna Quitney Anderson and Lee Rainie
All rights reserved
Printed in the United States of America
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in or introduced into
a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form, or by any means (electronic,
mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise), without the prior per-
mission of the publisher.
Requests for permission should be directed to:
[email protected], or mailed to:
Cambria Press
20 Northpointe Parkway, Suite 188
Amherst, NY 14228
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Anderson, Janna Quitney, 1955-
Hopes and fears : the future of the Internet II / Janna Quitney Anderson,
Lee Rainie.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-1-60497-571-0 (alk. paper)
1. Internet—Social aspects. 2. Internet—Forecasting. 3. Internet—
History. I. Rainie, Harrison. II. Title.
HM851.A628 2008
303.48’330112—dc22
2008040348
FOR VINT CERF AND BOB KAHN
These co-innovators of the transmission control protocol and Internet
protocol (TCP/IP)—the method by which packets are switched on net-
works, allowing information exchange—will forever be remembered as
the “fathers of the Internet.” Their work started in the 1970s, and it has
grown exponentially more demanding with each passing year, yet they
remain fully dedicated to their cause. They have given themselves over
completely to support the “end-to-end” model of the open Internet that
allows people at all levels of the network to innovate free of any central
control. Their work is representative of the work of many hundreds of
dedicated technology leaders of the 21st century. Cerf and Kahn have
worked together and individually in inspiring the thousands of global
contributors who are continually engineering the positive evolution of
the Internet. For this, we are truly thankful.
A SURVEY OF TECHNOLOGY THINKERS
AND STAKEHOLDERS SHOWS THEY BELIEVE
THE INTERNET WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
IN A “FLATTENING” AND IMPROVING WORLD.
THERE ARE MANY, THOUGH, WHO THINK
MAJOR PROBLEMS WILL ACCOMPANY
TECHNOLOGY ADVANCES BY 2020.
T C
ABLE OF ONTENTS
Foreword ix
Acknowledgments xv
Introduction: Respondents Refl ect on the Future xix
Summary of Findings xxv
Scenario 1: A Global, Low-Cost Network Thrives 1
Scenario 2: English Displaces Other Languages 49
Scenario 3: Autonomous Technology Is a Problem 77
Scenario 4: Transparency Trumps Privacy Issues 125
Scenario 5: Virtual Reality Brings Mixed Results 189
Scenario 6: The Internet Opens Access
and Blurs Boundaries 237
Scenario 7: Some Luddites/Refuseniks
Will Commit Terror Acts 295
World Priorities: Ranking Priorities for Global
Development 335
Refl ections 375
viii HOPES AND FEARS
Methodology 379
Appendix: Select Biographies 385
References 415
Contributor Index 421
Author Index 427
Subject Index 429
F
OREWORD
We learned so much and had such a good time asking experts to
predict the future of the Internet in 2002 that we did it again in a
survey in late 2005 and 2006. In the intervening period, the business
of looking into the future of technology had boomed. There were
many more sources of insight—and wackiness—to draw upon. So,
the results reported in this volume are somewhat sharper and more
pointed than in our fi rst volume. Truth to tell, we learned from our
research into the burgeoning fi eld of futurology about how to ask
questions more directly.
We also took inspiration to continue this work from the thoughtful
and widely quoted epigram of Alan Kay (1989), a brilliant digital inno-
vator: “The best way to predict the future is to invent it” (p. 1). That
gave us reason enough to consult as many of the creators, builders, and
shapers of the Internet as we could in this next round of work.
We went back to survey those we could fi nd who were in the extensive
Imagining the Internet database of expert commentators on the Internet
in the early to mid-1990s and those who were added to the list as we
conducted the fi rst Future of the Internet survey in 2002.1 We also built
the list of respondents by inviting commentary from the membership