Table Of ContentEU Drug Markets
Impact of COVID-19
May 2020
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EU DRUG MARKETS I IMPACT OF COVID-19
‘‘ The pandemic has had a major impact on our
lives and is slowing down our economy.
However, this economic trend has not been
seen in international drug trafficking. These
illegal markets continue to generate huge profits,
including during the pandemic. Seizures of
illegal drugs in some EU countries during the
first half of 2020 have been higher than in the
same months of previous years.
More than ever, these findings should
motivate us to ensure that any recovery from
the pandemic is accompanied by a strong
and effective international law enforcement
response.
We need to establish that drug traffickers do not
benefit from the potential social and economic
consequences of the current crisis.
Catherine De Bolle
Executive Director, Europol
‘‘ COVID-19 is an unparalleled public health
emergency and one that has had ramifications
across all areas of modern life. This report
provides valuable insights into the short-
term impact of the pandemic on the EU drug
market and will help us prepare for longer-term
repercussions. The economic effect of the crisis
is likely to make some in our communities more
vulnerable to both drug problems and drug
market involvement. Furthermore, the growth of
online dealing and encrypted communication
will place greater strains on law enforcement.
In the post-pandemic period, we are likely to
see greater volatility, competition and violence
associated with the drug trade. By anticipating
these developments now, we will be better
prepared to respond quickly and effectively to
the new challenges we are likely to face.
Alexis Goosdeel
Director, EMCDDA
EU DRUG MARKETS I IMPACT OF COVID-19
Contents
5 I Acknowledgements
6 I Introduction
7 I Key findings
8 I Impacts and drivers of drug markets
14 I Cannabis
16 I Heroin
18 I Cocaine
21 I Amphetamine, MDMA and methamphetamine
24 I Criminal groups
25 I Law enforcement responses
26 I Outlook
27 I References
EU DRUG MARKETS I IMPACT OF COVID-19
Acknowledgements
The EMCDDA and Europol would like to thank the following for their help and contribution to the
production of this report:
law enforcement authorities in the EU Member States;
Europol’s operational and strategic partners;
the Reitox network of national focal points;
the EMCDDA reference group on drug supply indicators;
members of the EMCDDA Scientific Committee who completed the survey;
the European Network of Forensic Science Institutes (Drugs Working Group);
Frontex (the European Border and Coast Guard Agency).
In addition, the EMCDDA would like to extend its gratitude to staff in the following organisations for
providing additional reports and assistance:
Belgian Federal Police;
Dutch National Police;
German Bundeskriminalamt;
University of Lausanne.
Finally, we would like to thank the experts who have kindly answered the questions of the authors and
would like to acknowledge the many individuals and organisations whose research and analysis we
have cited.
5
EU DRUG MARKETS I IMPACT OF COVID-19
Introduction from experts based in 22 EU Member States (2). Those who
contributed were doing so not officially on behalf of their country
but as members of various expert networks: the EMCDDA
Scientific Committee (n = 5), the EMCDDA Reference Group
The European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug on Drug Supply Indicators (n = 9), the European Network of
Addiction (EMCDDA) and the European Union Agency for Law Forensic Science Institutes (n = 2) and EMPACT (3) (n = 10). The
Enforcement Cooperation (Europol) published the most recent responses to 17 questions were examined, by drug type where
analysis of EU drug markets on 26 November 2019. At that relevant, in five content-based categories: (i) production; (ii)
time, no one could have predicted the dramatic changes that trafficking and seizures; (iii) availability, prices and purities; (iv)
2020 would bring. The COVID-19 (1) pandemic has affected our source of supply; and (v) drug-related violence and criminality.
daily lives in many ways and has also had an impact on drug The survey also contained a question about how the responses
markets. There is a critical need to investigate the extent and of law enforcement authorities are being affected by the
nature of this impact to identify areas where rapid adaptations COVID-19 pandemic. The survey was supplemented with a
to operational responses and future policies are required. In parallel data collection exercise among the EMCDDA national
addition, lessons may be learned from the past and current focal points in the EU Member States (n = 24), open source
situations in terms of how we might better anticipate emerging information, reports from independent experts, national and
threats and ensure that we act quickly to meet immediate and local studies and anecdotal evidence. Many respondents stated
longer-term data needs to inform policy, decision-making and that it was too early to identify drug market changes due to the
operational responses. time lag involved in monitoring or other data accessibility issues.
Clearly, a response of ‘no change’ may mean that changes
The objective of this analysis of EU drug markets is to increase are not yet apparent. Similarly, changes noted are informed
understanding of ongoing developments and their impact on the opinions but a caveat here is there is an absence of quantitative
internal security and public health of the EU in order to inform data that allows the robust observation of changes occurring
European institutions and partners in EU Member States. This over a relatively short time period. Therefore, conclusions drawn
is of vital importance for formulating effective responses at here are necessarily preliminary and will require review as more
EU and national levels and could inform (future) priorities for data sources become available. Unless stated otherwise, where
collaborative responses. survey responses are summarised in this report, experts from
countries that are not listed either did not reply or replied ‘don’t
This report looks at the following areas to provide information on know’. In addition, replies from Ukraine and the United Kingdom
the current situation and an assessment of the medium-term have not been included in these analyses, as the replies were
outlook in relation to drug markets: not submitted through official channels; however, they have
been used to contextualise the analysis. When there was more
impacts and consequences; than one contributor per country, the response that was deemed
drivers and facilitators; most relevant was used for the analysis.
focus on the main drug types;
criminal groups; Europol’s contribution to this joint report is primarily based on
law enforcement responses; intelligence received from law enforcement authorities in the
outlook. Member States and from law enforcement partners across the
world. This includes operational information from live cases and
investigations, as well as strategic intelligence received from law
Methodology
enforcement sources. Where necessary and appropriate, this
information has been complemented with verified information
This report uses a broad definition of the illicit drugs market, from open sources.
encompassing the illicit production, trafficking and wholesale
distribution of substances and sale to the end-user. In total, Europol received information from 26 EU Member
States, the United Kingdom and 14 partner countries on the
The findings are based on data collected rapidly by the EMCDDA crime situation during the COVID-19 pandemic through weekly
and Europol in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The reporting and a questionnaire.
EMCDDA conducted a targeted online survey — ‘EMCDDA:
Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the drug market’ — in
April 2020. The EMCDDA survey yielded 29 responses
(2) Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia,
Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta,
Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden; as well as Norway,
Ukraine and the United Kingdom.
(3) The European Multidisciplinary Platform against Criminal Threats is a group
(1) COVID-19 is short for coronavirus disease 2019, a respiratory illness caused coordinated by Europol that comprises experts from law enforcement
by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). agencies working in the drugs field.
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EU DRUG MARKETS I IMPACT OF COVID-19
Key findings
(cid:88) Global restrictions on travel and other measures as a result (cid:88) Shortages of cannabis resin and possible stockpiling of
of the COVID-19 pandemic have had a temporary disruptive herbal cannabis by users have led to inflated retail prices for
impact on the drug market leading to shortages of and higher both cannabis resin and herbal cannabis in some Member
prices for some drugs, but the situation is subject to rapid States. The domestic production of herbal cannabis appears
change. not to have been significantly disrupted.
(cid:88) The disruption to the supply chain and logistics of drug (cid:88) Heroin trafficking seems to be continuing on many of the
trafficking in Europe is most evident at the distribution level, known routes. The availability of heroin has decreased in some
because of social distancing measures. areas but this varies depending on national confinement rules
and restrictions on movement, with higher prices also reported
(cid:88) The movement of bulk quantities of drugs between in some places. Community-based information from drug
EU Member States has continued despite the introduction workers also suggests that there have been some shortages
of border controls due to the continued commercial and also the possibility that heroin has been substituted with
transportation of goods throughout the EU. other substances. These substances may include synthetic
opioids (diverted medicines or new psychoactive substances
(cid:88) In relation to cocaine, in particular, there is little evidence (NPS)) or alternative drugs (e.g. crack cocaine, amphetamine,
of disruption to activity at the wholesale importation level; synthetic cathinones), and it is possible that some of these
however, experts in some countries report increasing prices substances may feature more prominently in the drug market
and decreasing purity at the consumer level, indicative of in the longer term in affected places.
localised supply shortages.
(cid:88) Cocaine trafficking using maritime shipping containers
(cid:88) Organised crime groups (OCGs) remain resilient and are has continued at levels that are comparable to or even possibly
adapting their modi operandi to the current situation, further higher than those seen in 2019. European and Colombian
exploiting secure communication channels and adapting data show that significant seizures were made in the first part
transportation models, trafficking routes and concealment of 2020, despite the restrictions resulting from the COVID-19
methods. pandemic. Unsurprisingly, trafficking by air passengers has
decreased dramatically.
(cid:88) The current instability has led to an increasingly volatile
environment for criminal businesses along the supply chain (cid:88) Synthetic drug production continues in the main European
in Europe and appears to have resulted in increased levels of producing zone in the Netherlands and Belgium, as evidenced
violence among mid-level suppliers and distributors. by the number of illicit laboratories dismantled and dumpsites
reported. However, in Europe and globally, the demand for
(cid:88) Surface web and darknet markets, social media and synthetic drugs used in recreational settings, in particular
secure encrypted communication applications now appear to MDMA, seems to have diminished in the short term due to the
be playing a more prominent role in the sourcing of drugs at closure of venues and cancellation of festivals. The wholesale
user level. Home deliveries, less face-to-face dealing and less prices of amphetamine and MDMA have increased in several
reliance on cash as a form of payment seem to be increasing countries; however, the Netherlands reports decreasing prices,
for individual transactions and it is possible that behavioural indicative of attempts to increase sales.
changes, once established, will persist over the longer term.
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EU DRUG MARKETS I IMPACT OF COVID-19
Impacts and drivers of drug markets
Key points sources of income through work or begging because of the
COVID-19 restrictions.
Restriction measures have had a positive impact
Law enforcement authorities in Austria reported no change
on low-level violent crime in general, however,
in the level of drug-related violence but noted that, in general,
drug-related violence is reported to be increasing
community harms have decreased as the majority of people,
in some EU countries and local conflicts over drug
including drug users, are staying at home. Portugal also reported
distribution and territory during the pandemic have
that the social distancing rules have led to a general decrease
also been noted.
in levels of violent crime. General reporting to Europol also
The logistics of drug trafficking appear to be
indicates that low-level violent crime has decreased in general
most affected in relation to the movement of bulk
but serious drug-related violence continues (Crimesite.nl, 2020;
quantities of drugs between EU Member States,
Slot, 2020) (see also section on criminal groups, p. 23).
due to the introduction of border controls.
A number of trafficking, supply and distribution It is probably too early to properly assess the levels of drug-
strategies have been adopted to overcome related violence in many countries. The restrictions on
the restrictions implemented as a result of the movement and the increased presence of security forces on
COVID-19 pandemic. the streets seem to have had a positive effect on low-level
The data show an increase in the use of darknet violent crime. The lifting of the restrictions, however, is likely
markets as a potentially convenient channel for to see a return of drug-related violence. Different cities or
drug distribution, notably for small quantities of neighbourhoods are likely to experience different patterns of
herbal cannabis. drug-related violence after the pandemic, and longer-term
measurements are needed to understand these patterns. The
expected economic downturn is likely to have a significant
Impacts and consequences negative impact on dependent drug users, which may lead to
increased levels of acquisitive crime until the situation stabilises.
Harms to individuals, families and
Impact on the legal economy
neighbourhoods
The current pandemic and its economic consequences are
Localised shortages of some drugs have led to increased
likely to exert significant pressure on the financial system and
tensions between the OCGs supplying these drugs. In some
the banking sector. Anti-money laundering regulators and other
cases, this has resulted in an increase in the number of violent
professionals in the sector should anticipate attempts by OCGs
confrontations reported between OCG members (4).
to exploit the volatile economic situation to launder money using
the onshore financial system.
Experts from Denmark, Finland, France and Sweden replying
to the EMCDDA survey reported an increase in the number
The current crisis and its impact on the economy may provide
of violent confrontations, while Austria and Portugal reported
a real test of the effectiveness and resilience of the EU-wide
a decrease. In Denmark, COVID-19 restrictions have had an
measures introduced to limit cash transactions and prevent
impact on the sale of cannabis in a certain part of Copenhagen,
money laundering schemes.
which has led to displacement of the trade to surrounding areas
and increased feelings of insecurity in those communities.
The expected emergence of a post-pandemic recession may
Although Denmark reported an increase in violent conflict
lead to a reduction in the prices of goods and a downturn in
between criminal groups, it was also stated that this is not
economic sectors favoured by criminals. This may be particularly
unusual in the criminal milieu, so it may not be related to the
noticeable in the real estate sector, which lends itself to the
impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on drug markets. The Danish
investment of criminal profits. The real estate and construction
and the United Kingdom expert mentioned that there have been
sectors will become even more attractive for money laundering,
some early indications of low-level acquisitive crime, tentatively
both in terms of investment and as a justification for the
linked to dependent drug users who have lost alternative
movement of funds. In addition, criminals will continue to
abuse financial markets in order to layer and integrate criminal
(4) Contribution provided to Europol.
8
EU DRUG MARKETS I IMPACT OF COVID-19
proceeds. Investment in artworks may also be attractive due to Drivers and facilitators
the absence of fixed prices.
Economic hardship also lowers the barriers for some people
to accept off-the-book transactions and engage in other Trafficking, supply and distribution
illegal conduct, especially when criminal investors are the only
accessible providers of capital. Criminal activity may also appear
Much like legitimate businesses, OCGs have been affected by
to be a viable option for income generation for those whose
the COVID-19 pandemic. Many rely on global supply chains
livelihoods have been affected by the pandemic. Negative
to help them produce, transport and sell illicit goods and the
coping mechanisms, such as engaging in cannabis cultivation or
current situation has, in some cases, forced them to adjust their
gang affiliation, may become more common.
business models (World Customs Organization, 2020).
Cash-intensive businesses such as restaurants, casinos and
However, it should be noted that the transportation of
beauty salons have long been used to launder illicit profits,
commercial goods has not seen the same widespread
by integrating illegal gains with legitimate revenue; however,
disruption as individual passenger transport. Therefore, the
the reduction in opportunities to use physical cash may affect
trafficking of drugs by maritime shipping or commercial air
the cash flow related to drug trafficking and dealing. With the
freight has probably continued at similar levels to those in the
diminishing relevance of cash as a payment medium during the
pre-pandemic period.
crisis and the closure of these types of businesses, it is unclear
what other forms of money laundering will be employed in the
Seizure data collected from some of the main entry points
future.
of cocaine to the EU suggest that there has been little or
no disruption to the supply of cocaine to the EU during the
Overall, the economic impact of the pandemic will be a key
pandemic (see Table 1).
factor in shaping the future landscape of serious and organised
crime in the EU. It should be noted, however, that the economic
impacts of the pandemic and the activities of those seeking to
exploit them may become apparent only in the mid-term and will Maritime trafficking
probably only manifest themselves much later.
Maritime shipping has continued relatively unimpeded by
the pandemic and trafficking opportunities remain available
to OCGs involved in the wholesale transportation of drugs to
Drug supply in prisons
Europe. A number of significant seizures of drugs have been
made in the last few months. For example, at the end of March,
In order to prevent the spread of COVID-19 in prisons, changes
Dutch law enforcement authorities seized 2 000 kg of cocaine
to prison rules have been made in some countries, such as
at the Port of Rotterdam (5) (Pieters, 2020). At the beginning of
restrictions on visits and other outside contacts (Council of
May, 500 kg of cocaine was seized from a ship under the flag
Europe, 2020). This has indirectly led to a decrease in the
of Montenegro, sailing from Brazil via the United Kingdom to
availability of drugs in some prisons and this has sparked violent
the Port of Hamburg in Germany (6) (Hakirevic, 2020). Heroin,
reactions from some prison inmates in France, Italy, Spain and
cannabis resin and further cocaine seizures have also been
the United Kingdom (Séré, 2020; Floris, 2020; López-Fonseca,
made and are detailed later in this report.
2020; Sundstrom and Blackmore, 2020). Under these more
restrictive conditions, new methods to smuggle drugs into
The continuing maritime trafficking activity is also revealed by
prisons may appear; for example, the use of drones is expected
the steady number of seizures of cocaine, destined for Europe,
to increase, as a recent incident near the perimeter of a prison in
at Colombian ports (Table 1). From 1 January to mid-May 2020,
the United Kingdom suggests (Lancashire Police, 2020).
there were 10 seizures of cocaine at Colombia ports, half of
which was destined for Belgium, amounting to 1 138 kg of
cocaine (73 % of the total).
(5) Contribution to Europol from the Netherlands.
(6) Contribution to Europol from Germany.
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EU DRUG MARKETS I IMPACT OF COVID-19
TABLE 1 to boarding a flight destined for Switzerland for attempting to
Cocaine destined for Europe seized in Colombian ports, smuggle cocaine to Europe (20min.ch, 2020).
1 January to 16 May 2020
It should be noted that, despite the sharp reduction in
Port of departure Destination Quantity (kg) passenger numbers, many airports, and certainly large airports
serving major cities, remain open for cargo operations (Gittens,
Santa Marta Hamburg, Germany 62
2020). Drug trafficking by air freight appears to be continuing.
Antwerp, Belgium 475
Cartagena Leixões, Portugal 9
Rotterdam, Netherlands 20
Intra-EU trafficking
Antwerp, Belgium 363
Barranquilla Sweden (*) 322
OCGs are quick to adapt and exploit new opportunities,
Urabá Antwerp, Belgium 300
circumvent controls and use the newest digital technology.
Total 1 551 Street dealing in some cities has been severely affected during
(*) Port not specified. the COVID-19 pandemic due to restrictions on movement and
Source: Colombian National Police contribution to Europol. the increased presence of law enforcement authorities; however,
this may have been mitigated by a shift to online channels and
delivery service models.
Aviation trafficking
Some Member States have reported that drug trafficking has
continued as normal, mainly because the cross-border passage
The COVID-19 crisis has resulted in unprecedented disruption to
of licit goods has been maintained and the transportation of
global air passenger transport — virtually all airports, especially
commercial goods has continued, therefore allowing the flow of
those handling international passengers, have faced sharp
illicit drugs to continue. Meanwhile, the travel restrictions and
declines in traffic volumes, limiting the opportunities for drug
additional controls imposed on citizens at many EU borders
smuggling by air passengers. During repatriation efforts early
have led to diminished intra-European trafficking using couriers.
in the crisis, three suspects were arrested in Costa Rica prior
Drug drops, aka ‘dead drops’
This distribution method involves the buyer transferring funds to This method has been used to distribute drugs for a long time in
the seller, after which the drugs are secreted in a hidden place Russia and Eastern European countries, such as Moldova and
and the coordinates and a description of the hiding place are Ukraine. It has also been reported in some EU Member States,
sent to the buyer to retrieve them. Frequently, cryptocurrencies such as Estonia, and more recently in Belgium and the United
and encrypted communication channels are used, such as Kingdom, linked to lockdown conditions, although the method
Telegram, Wickr, Signal, etc. Clearly, the seller and the buyer is likely to be more widespread. For example, some vendors on
need to be relatively close to each other, as they both have to darknet markets have recently offered dead drops in Barcelona,
travel to the same place. Helsinki and Tallinn.
10
