Analyzing, Modeling, and Simulating the Will to Fight of Military Units

275 Pages·2017·5.25 MB·English

CORPORATION
WILL to FIGHT
Analyzing, Modeling, and Simulating
the Will to Fight of Military Units
Ben Connable, Michael J. McNerney, William Marcellino, Aaron Frank,
Henry Hargrove, Marek N. Posard, S. Rebecca Zimmerman,
Natasha Lander, Jasen J. Castillo, James Sladden
For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2341
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ISBN: 978-1-9774-0044-4
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Preface
This report documents research and analysis conducted as part of a project entitled
Influencing Will to Fight, sponsored by the U.S. Army G-3/5/7. The purpose of the
project was to explain will to fight at the unit level and to develop a model designed to
support assessment of partner forces and analysis of adversary forces.
The Project Unique Identification Code (PUIC) for the project that produced this
document is HQD167560.
This research was conducted within RAND Arroyo Center’s Strategy, Doctrine,
and Resources Program. RAND Arroyo Center, part of the RAND Corporation, is a
federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) sponsored by the United
States Army.
RAND operates under a “Federal-Wide Assurance” (FWA00003425) and com-
plies with the Code of Federal Regulations for the Protection of Human Subjects Under
United States Law (45 CFR 46), also known as “the Common Rule,” as well as with
the implementation guidance set forth in DoD Instruction 3216.02. As applicable, this
compliance includes reviews and approvals by RAND’s Institutional Review Board
(the Human Subjects Protection Committee) and by the U.S. Army. The views of
sources utilized in this study are solely their own and do not represent the official
policy or position of DoD or the U.S. government.
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Contents
Preface ................................................................................................. iii
Figures .................................................................................................vii
Tables .................................................................................................. ix
Summary .............................................................................................. xi
Abbreviations ....................................................................................... xxv
Acknowledgments ................................................................................xxvii
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction and Historical Background: Will to Fight Matters ........................... 1
Objectives, Definitions, and Report Roadmap ..................................................... 5
Will to Fight Matters but Is Hard to Incorporate into Practice .................................. 8
Impact of American Will-to-Fight Assessment and Analysis Failures ..........................18
Research Purposes, Methodology, and Limitations .............................................. 24
CHAPTER TWO
A Model of Will to Fight ...........................................................................33
Objectives and Parameters of the Model ...........................................................33
Modeling Will to Fight Using a System-of-Systems Approach ................................. 36
Individual-Level System-of-Systems Model of Will to Fight ....................................49
Unit-Level System-of-Systems Model of Will to Fight ...........................................63
CHAPTER THREE
War Gaming and Simulating of Will to Fight ............................................... 113
Adding Combat Factors and Veterancy .......................................................... 115
Analysis of Existing War Games and Simulations .............................................. 125
Testing Will to Fight in Simulation: Does It Make a Difference?............................. 137
Summary of Gaming and Simulation Analysis and Experimentation ........................ 156
CHAPTER FOUR
Concluding Thoughts and a Note About Ongoing Research .............................. 159
A Better, If Messier, Way ........................................................................... 161
Ongoing Research: Allied Will to Fight .......................................................... 163
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vi Will to Fight
APPENDIXES
A. Structured Literature Review Process and Findings .................................... 165
B. Coded Case Study Procedures and Results ................................................ 179
C. American Military Doctrine and the Will to Fight...................................... 187
D. Interview Questions and Representative Quotes ........................................ 203
E. Silver Model (CPM) Technical Details ..................................................... 207
Bibliography ........................................................................................ 221
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Figures
S.1 Varying Ground Combat Service Emphasis on Will to Fight in Doctrine .......xv
S.2 Example of IWARS Squad-Level Simulation Adding Suppression ............... xvi
S.3 Individual Will-to-Fight Model ....................................................... xix
S.4 Will-to-Fight Model from Individual to State and Society: Systems
Visualization ..............................................................................xx
S.5 Will-to-Fight Model from Individual to State and Society: Wheel
Visualization ............................................................................. xxi
1.1 The Battle of Verdun ....................................................................16
1.2 The Levels of War for Will-to-Fight Analysis ....................................... 26
1.3 Will to Fight as a Component of Holistic Combat Effectiveness ................. 28
2.1 Notional Example of Nodes and Links ...............................................39
2.2 Relative Durability Rating in the Node-and-Link Model ......................... 40
2.3 Relative Durability Rating in the Concentric Wheel Model ...................... 40
2.4 Individuals as Parts of Organizations and Units .................................... 50
2.5 Systems Model of Stand-Alone Soldier Will-to-Fight Factors ......................59
2.6 Soldier Quality as a Subsystem at the Stand-Alone Level of Will to Fight ...... 60
2.7 Identity as a Subsystem at the Stand-Alone Level of Will to Fight ................61
2.8 Competence as a Subsystem at the Stand-Alone Level of Will to Fight ..........62
2.9 Individual Soldier as a Will-to-Fight Subsystem .....................................63
2.10 Cohesion in a Unit .......................................................................67
2.11 Cohesion Added to the Unit Model .................................................. 68
2.12 Expectation Added to the Unit Model ................................................71
2.13 Leadership Added to the Unit Model .................................................73
2.14 Control Added to the Unit Model .................................................... 77
2.15 Esprit de Corps Added to the Unit Model ............................................79
2.16 Competence Added to the Unit Model ...............................................81
2.17 Unit System-of-Systems Diagram Showing Individual Factors ....................83
2.18 Control Added to the Organizational Model ........................................85
2.19 Esprit de Corps Added to the Organizational Model .............................. 87
2.20 Support Added to the Organizational Model ....................................... 87
2.21 Leadership Added to the Organizational Model .....................................89
2.22 Integrity Added to the Organizational Model .......................................91
2.23 Training Added to the Organizational Model ...................................... 92
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2.24 Organizational System-of-Systems Diagram Showing Individual Factors ....... 94
2.25 Civil-Military Relations Added to the State Will-to-Fight Model ................ 97
2.26 Integrity Added to the State Will-to-Fight Model .................................. 99
2.27 Support Added to the State Will-to-Fight Model .................................. 100
2.28 Strategy Added to the State Will-to-Fight Model .................................. 101
2.29 Leadership Added to the State Will-to-Fight Model .............................. 102
2.30 Identity Added to the Societal Will-to-Fight Model .............................. 104
2.31 Integrity Added to the Societal Will-to-Fight Model ............................. 106
2.32 Support Added to the Societal Will-to-Fight Model .............................. 108
2.33 A System-of-Systems Tactical-Operational Will-to-Fight Model:
Node-and-Link ......................................................................... 110
2.34 System-of-Systems Tactical-Operational Will-to-Fight Model:
Concentric Wheel ..................................................................... 111
2.35 Notional Will-to-Fight Rating Scale with Differentiated Factor Ratings ....... 112
3.1 Swank and Marchand Combat Effectiveness Degradation Curve, 1946 ....... 124
3.2 War Games Rules 3000 BC to 1485 AD Will-to-Fight System ................. 132
3.3 A Notional Example of States and Traits in the Silver Model (CPM)........... 141
3.4 State Changes in Silver Model NetLogo Implementation ........................ 142
3.5 Obedience Events in Silver Model NetLogo Implementation .................... 143
3.6 Total Sum of Order Delays in Silver Model NetLogo Implementation ......... 144
3.7 Blue Soldiers Reacting to Suppression in IWARS Experiment 2 ................ 146
3.8 Silver Model (CPM) Process Flowchart ............................................. 150
3.9 Squad Leader State Value Changes to Traits over Time in Experiment 3 ...... 152
3.10 Squad Leader State Change Triggers Flight ........................................ 152
3.11 Soldiers Reacting to Suppression in IWARS Experiment 3, Series 2 ............ 153
3.12 Comparison of Red and Blue Team Flee Margin Thresholds .................... 155
A.1 Fighter-Spirit Model ................................................................... 171
A.2 Dutch Organizational Support Model .............................................. 172
A.3 Tentative Consolidated Model Derived Only from Literature Review .......... 175
C.1 Changing Emphasis on Will to Fight in U.S. Army Manuals,
1895–1944 .............................................................................. 190
C.2 Changing Emphasis on Will to Fight in Army and Marine Doctrine,
1895–2017 .............................................................................. 198
C.3 Sample 2004 Marine Corps Order of Battle Intelligence Assessment ........... 201
E.1 Original Silver Model Morale, Support, and Leadership Calculations.......... 208
E.2 Original Silver Model State Morale Calculation ................................... 208
E.3 Original Silver Model Changes in Performance ................................... 211
E.4 IWARS Implementation Table ....................................................... 212
E.5 Communication Skill Detail ......................................................... 214
E.6 How the Civilian Computer Computes and Communicates .................... 217
E.7 How Permanent Traits Are Adjusted ................................................ 218
E.8 How Environmental Stressors Are Triggered ....................................... 219
E.9 Combat Routine ....................................................................... 220
E.10 Red Combat ............................................................................ 220
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Tables
S.1 Factors and Subfactors Constituting Will to Fight ................................ xvii
1.1 Outputs from the Will-to-Fight Research Project .................................... 6
1.2 CIA Assessments of DRV Will to Fight from 1954 to 1974 ........................21
2.1 Differences in Modeling Objectives ...................................................35
2.2 Categories of Will-to-Fight Factors ................................................... 40
2.3 Factor Model of Tactical-Operational Unit Will to Fight ..........................41
2.4 Individual Factors of Will to Fight ....................................................49
2.5 Unit Will-to-Fight Factors ............................................................. 64
2.6 Organizational Will-to-Fight Factors .................................................85
2.7 State and Societal Will-to-Fight Factors ..............................................95
3.1 Mid- and Low-Durability Model Factors ........................................... 116
3.2 Adversary Combat Factors ............................................................ 117
3.3 Exogenous Combat Factors ........................................................... 119
3.4 Possible Combat Behaviors Resulting from Decisions Driven by
Will to Fight ............................................................................ 121
3.5 War Games and Simulations Assessed and Coded ................................ 128
3.6 Inductive Codes Generated and Applied to Each Game or Simulation
Product .................................................................................. 131
3.7 IWARS Suppression Experiment 2 NSRDEC Results ............................ 145
3.8 IWARS Suppression Experiment 2, RAND Series 1, Results .................... 147
3.9 IWARS Suppression Experiment 2, RAND Series 2, Results ................... 148
3.10 RAND IWARS Experiment 3, Series 1, Silver Model Results for Blue Only .. 151
3.11 IWARS Experiment 3, RAND Series 2, Silver Model Platoon Comparison .. 154
A.1 Literature Review Codes and Descriptions ......................................... 176
B.1 Questions for Tactical-Operational Will-to-Fight Case Coding ................. 180
C.1 Comparison of Will-to-Fight Tenets in Maneuver Warfare and the RMA ..... 195
E.1 Original Silver Model Trait-States ................................................... 207
E.2 Original Silver Model Aggregated States ........................................... 208
E.3 Original Silver Model Battlefield Variables ......................................... 209
E.4 Original Silver Model Group Elements ............................................. 210
E.5 Original Silver Model Stress Reduction Variables (Immediate) .................. 210
E.6 Original Silver Model Stress Reduction Variables (Timed) ...................... 210
E.7 Skills Frequently Used in IWARS Implementation ............................... 213
E.8 Key Activity Groups Used for CPM ................................................. 213
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