Combining Economic and Political Development International Development Policy Editor-in-Chief Gilles Carbonnier (Professor of Development Economics, The Graduate Institute, Geneva) Guest Editor Giacomo Luciani (Adjunct Professor of International Affairs, Graduate Institute, Geneva and Scientific Advisor of the Master in International Energy at the Paris School of International Affairs, Sciences Po) Volume 7 The titles published in this series are listed at brill.com/idp Editorial Board Marc Bacchetta (Counsellor, Economic Research and Statistics Division, wto) Jean-François Bayart (Director of Research, Centre of Research and International Studies (ceri), Sciences Po, Paris, France) Carlos Casas (Professor of Economics, Head of the Economics Department, Universidad del Pacifico, Lima, Peru) Francis Cheneval (Professor of Political Philosophy, University of Zurich, Switzerland) Suren Erkman (Director, Institute of Land Use Policies and Human Environment, University of Lausanne, Switzerland) Marcela Eslava (Associate Professor, Universidad de los Andes, Colombia) Till Förster (Professor of Social Anthropology, Institute of Social Anthropology, University of Basel, Switzerland) Ricardo Fuentes-Nieva (Chief Executive Officer, Oxfam Mexico) Inge Kaul (Adjunct Professor, Hertie School of Governance, Berlin, Germany) Xiaoyun Li (Dean of the College of Humanities and Development Studies, China Agricultural University, and Chief Senior Advisor, International Poverty Reduction Center, China) Pamela Martin (Professor in Political Science and Geography, Coastal Carolina University, usa) Katharina Michaelowa (Professor of Political Economy and Development, Institute of Political Science, University of Zurich; Director, Center for Comparative and International Studies, Zurich, Switzerland) Hassan Mshinda (Director, Tanzanian Commission for Science and Technology (costech)) Patrick Osakwe (Chief, Africa Section, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (unctad)) Ugo Panizza (Professor of Economics, The Graduate Institute, Geneva, Switzerland) Dennis Rodgers (Professor of International Development Studies, University of Amsterdam, Netherlands) Jorge Alberto Restrepo Torres (Associate Professor, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Bogota, Colombia) Elizabeth Sidiropoulos (Chief Executive, South African Institute of International Affairs (saia), South Africa) Mahaman Tidjani Alou (Dean of the Faculty of Economics and Law and Professor, Abdou Moumouni University, Niamey, Niger) James Zhan (Director, Division of Investment and Enterprise, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (unctad)) Managing Editor Frances Rice Research and Communication Officers Eliane Matti and Nurgul Tilenbaeva Figure Layout Marie Thorndahl Copyeditor Dave Brooks Cover Photo © Mohamed Abd El Ghany / Reuter Visit International Development Policy and associated documents online http://devpol.org and http://debate.devpol.org This is an open access title distributed under the terms of the cc-by-nc License, which permits any non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and source are credited. Cover illustration: A general view of anti-Mursi protesters gathering at Tahrir Square in Cairo November 27, 2012. Opponents of President Mohamed Mursi clashed with Egyptian police on Tuesday as thousands of protesters stepped up pressure on the Islamist to scrap a decree they say threatens the nation with a new era of autocracy. Photographer © Mohamed Abd El Ghany / Reuter Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Luciani, Giacomo, 1948- editor. Title: Combining economic and political development : the experience of mena / edited by Giacomo Luciani. Description: Boston : Brill, [2017] | Series: International development policy ; 7 | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: lccn 2016053244 (print) | lccn 2017002038 (ebook) | isbn 9789004336445 (pbk. : alk. paper) | isbn 9789004336452 (E-book) Subjects: lcsh: Middle East--Economic policy. | Africa, North--Economic policy. | Arab Spring, 2011- Classification: lcc hc415.15 .c66 2017 (print) | lcc hc415.15 (ebook) | ddc 338.956--dc23 lc record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2016053244 Typeface for the Latin, Greek, and Cyrillic scripts: “Brill”. See and download: brill.com/brill-typeface. issn 1663-9383 isbn 978-90-04-33644-5 (paperback) isbn 978-90-04-33645-2 (e-book) Copyright 2017 by the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies. This work is published by Koninklijke Brill nv. Koninklijke Brill nv incorporates the imprints Brill, Brill Hes & De Graaf, Brill Nijhoff, Brill Rodopi and Hotei Publishing. Koninklijke Brill nv reserves the right to protect the publication against unauthorized use and to authorize dissemination by means of offprints, legitimate photocopies, microform editions, reprints, translations, and secondary information sources, such as abstracting and indexing services including databases. Requests for commercial re-use, use of parts of the publication, and/or translations must be addressed to Koninklijke Brill nv. This book is printed on acid-free paper and produced in a sustainable manner. Combining Economic and Political Development The Experience of mena Edited by Giacomo Luciani LEIDEN | BOSTON Contents Foreword ix Preface xi List of Illustrations xii List of Acronyms and Abbreviations xiv Notes on Contributors xvi 1 Introduction: In Search of Economic Policies to Stabilise Democratic Transitions 1 Giacomo Luciani 2 Reflections on the Arab Uprisings 22 Samir Makdisi 3 Rethinking the Rentier Curse 41 Adeel Malik 4 A Brief Political Economy of Energy Subsidies in the Middle East and North Africa 58 Laura El-Katiri and Bassam Fattouh 5 The Political Economy of Distribution in the Middle East: Is There Scope for a New Social Contract? 88 Steffen Hertog 6 Arab States as Shareholders: Origins and Consequences 114 Alissa Amico 7 Can Finance and Credit Enable Economic Growth and Democracy? 132 Bassem Snaije 8 Agriculture and Development in the Wake of the Arab Spring 144 Eckart Woertz 9 Mass Migration and Uprisings in Arab Countries: An Analytical Framework 170 Philippe Fargues viii Contents 10 Egypt’s Economic Transition: Challenges and Prospects 184 Robert Springborg 11 Oil Rent and Regional Economic Development in mena 211 Giacomo Luciani Index 231 Foreword It is my pleasure to introduce this new thematic volume of International Development Policy (idp). The journal’s seventh annual issue focuses exclu- sively, and for the first time, on the Middle East and North Africa (mena), a region beset by armed conflict, social and economic turmoil and set against the backdrop of lower oil prices and political uncertainty. The volume explores the economic implications of democratic transition efforts in the region since the start of the so-called Arab Spring in December 2010. It analyses the challenges facing governments in addressing the underly- ing economic problems that have led to widening national and regional in- equality and contributed to the initial unrest, while questioning the complex relationships with Europe, the usa and the rest of the world. Importantly, the volume highlights the value of short-term policy measures that may offer the potential for quick and visible economic wins to help consolidate democratic processes and strengthen institutional governance at critical junctures. The volume consists of eleven chapters including an introduction by the guest editor, prof. Giacomo Luciani. As he underscores, this collection of ar- ticles pursues specific objectives while complementing the existing literature on economic and political developments in the mena region. While acknowl- edging policy priorities aimed at producing positive results in the long run, such as public sector reform and economic diversification, there is a sense of urgency when it comes to offering new opportunities to respond to the chal- lenge of rising labour market demand, with a projected North African work- force expected to grow by more than 80 million between 2010 and 2050.1 The authors further insist on the imperative of seeking out and implementing in- novative policies ‘that will allow for rapid improvement in the living condi- tions of a majority of people and sustain consensus around the consolidation of d emocracy’. These include measures such as the abolition of fuel subsidies combined with a targeted system of unconditional cash transfers, and policies that favour currency devaluation and reform of the banking sector to support small-scale enterprises. I commend Giacomo Luciani for pulling together a timely and thought- provoking volume that brings together authors displaying a wide breadth of expertise not only with regard to the highly complex challenges and problems facing the region, but also with regard to potential economic policy measures in support of inclusive development and democratisation. The volume thus 1 AfDB, oecd, undp (2015), African Economic Outlook, pp. xii–xiii. x Foreword contributes to filling gaps in our understanding of how economic and political development processes may support democratic transition in spite of adverse political-economy dynamics. It also illustrates the broader intent that lies at the heart of our journal which seeks to serve as a bridge between academic research and policy making. I extend special thanks to the Kuwait Foundation for the Advancement of Sciences (kfas) and the Kuwait Program at Sciences Po, as the sponsors of the conference that provided financial support and material for this publication. I also underline my appreciation to Ghassan Salamé, the founding Dean of the Paris School of International Affairs at Sciences Po (psia), as well as to two anonymous peer reviewers for their insightful remarks and suggestions. While I hope this collection will have particular appeal to new readers in the mena region, I am confident that the volume will raise interest among our regular readership of scholars and practioners elsewhere thanks to the rel- evance and diversity of contributions on a region whose future bears central importance to us all. Gilles Carbonnier, Editor-in-Chief

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