Violent Victors: Why Bloodstained Parties Win Postwar Elections

409 Pages·2022·7.312 MB·English

by  Sarah Zukerman Daly

violent victors
prince ton studies in international
history and politics
Tanisha M. Fazal, G. John Ikenberry, William C. Wohlforth,
and Keren Yarhi- Milo, Series Editors
For a full list of titles in the series, go to https://press.princeton.edu/series
/ princeton -studies-in-international-history-and-politics
Violent Victors: Why Bloodstained Parties Win Postwar Elections,
Sarah Zukerman Daly
An Unwritten F uture: Realism and Uncertainty in World Politics, Jonathan Kirshner
Undesirable Immigrants: Why Racism Persists in International Migration,
Andrew S. Rosenberg
Human Rights for Pragmatists: Social Power in Modern Times, Jack Snyder
Seeking the Bomb: Strategies of Nuclear Proliferation, Vipin Narang
The Spectre of War: International Communism and the Origins of World War II,
Jonathan Haslam
Active Defense: China’s Military Strategy since 1949, M. Taylor Fravel
Strategic Instincts: The Adaptive Advantages of Cognitive Biases in International
Politics, Dominic D. P. Johnson
Divided Armies: In equality and Battlefield Per for mance in Modern War, Jason Lyall
After Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding of Order after
Major Wars, New Edition, G. John Ikenberry
Cult of the Irrelevant: The Waning Influence of Social Science on National Security,
Michael C. Desch
Secret Wars: Covert Conflict in International Politics, Austin Carson
Who Fights for Reputation: The Psy chol ogy of Leaders in International Conflict,
Keren Yarhi- Milo
Aftershocks: Great Powers and Domestic Reforms in the Twentieth Century,
Seva Gunitsky
Why Wilson Matters: The Origin of American Liberal Internationalism and Its
Crisis Today, Tony Smith
Powerplay: The Origins of the American Alliance System in Asia, Victor D. Cha
Economic Interdependence and War, Dale C. Copeland
Knowing the Adversary: Leaders, Intelligence, and Assessment of Intentions in
International Relations, Keren Yarhi- Milo
Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era: Regional Powers and International Conflict,
Vipin Narang
Violent Victors
why bloodstained parties win
postwar elections
sar ah zukerman daly
prince ton university press
princet on & oxford
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contents
Illustrations ix
Acknowl edgments xiii
Abbreviations xvii
1 Introduction 1
2 Po liti cal Stage, Actors, and Audience 15
3 Violent- Victors Theory of Po liti cal Be hav ior after War 25
4 Postwar Voters and Survey Experiments 63
5 Military Draw in El Salvador 110
6 Government Victory in Guatemala 158
7 Rebel Victory in Nicaragua 194
8 Po liti cal Life after War Globally, 1970–2015 210
9 Implications for Postwar Peace, Justice, Democracy, and
Governance 240
10 Conclusion 253
Appendix 263
Notes 277
References 331
Index 369
vii

illustrations
Figures
2.1. A Continuum of War Outcomes 23
3.1. Claim to the Security Issue: A Gulliver among the Lilliputians 35
4.1. Government Belligerent Party Strategies: Experimental Design 79
4.2. Rebel Belligerent Party Strategies: Experimental Design 80
4.3. Combat Boots: Army versus Rebel 81
4.4. Effect of Government Belligerent Party Strategies on
Probability of Being Deemed More Competent on
Prospective Security 83
4.5. Probability of Being Preferred on Security for Selected
Government Belligerent Candidate Profiles 85
4.6. Effect of Government Belligerent Party Strategies on
Probability of Receiving Credit for War Termination 86
4.7. Probability of Being Elected for Selected Government
Belligerent Candidate Profiles 87
4.8. Probability of Being Elected for Selected Rebel Belligerent
Candidate Profiles 87
5.1. Campaign Ad: ARENA Saving El Salvador from Communism 125
5.2. Campaign Ad: ARENA’s Hand Alone, Signing the Peace
Accords 126
5.3. ARENA Campaign Plan: Targeting of Undecided Voters 129
5.4. ARENA: Potential “Restrained Sovereign” Presidential Slogans 130
5.5. “We Will Fight Crime Since We Have the Experience” 133
ix