Table Of ContentElectoral Incentives in Congress
David Mayhew’s (1974) thesis regarding the “electoral connection” and
its impact on legislative behavior has become the theoretical founda-
tion for much of the existing research on the modern US Congress.
Recently, a number of scholars have begun to independently suggest
that the electoral incentive may apply to politics in earlier congressio-
nal eras as well. To assess these disparate claims more systematically,
Carson and Sievert investigate whether legislators in earlier historical
eras were motivated by many of the same factors that influence their
behavior today, especially with regard to the pursuit of reelection. In
this respect, they examine the role of electoral incentives in shaping
legislative behavior across a wide swath of the nineteenth century. This
entails looking at patterns of turnover in Congress across this period,
the politics underlying renomination of candidates, the changing role
of parties in recruiting candidates to run and its broader effect on can-
didate competition, as well as electoral accountability across a variety of
dimensions. The results have wide- ranging implications for the evolu-
tion of Congress and the development of various legislative institutions
over time.
Jamie L. Carson is Professor of Political Science at the University of
Georgia.
Joel Sievert is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Texas Tech
University.
LEGISLATIVE POLITICS & POLICY MAKING
Series Editors
Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, Vernal Riffe Professor of Political Science,
The Ohio State University
David Canon, Professor of Political Science, University of Wisconsin, Madison
recent titles in the series:
Electoral Incentives in Congress
jamie l. carson and joel sievert
Politics over Process: Partisan Conflict and Post-Passage Processes
in the U.S. Congress
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On Parliamentary War: Partisan Conflict and Procedural Change
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james J. wallner
The Rise of the Representative: Lawmakers and Constituents in Colonial America
Peverill Squire
Implementing Term Limits: The Case of the Michigan Legislature
marjorie sarbaugh-thompson and lyke thompson
The Modern Legislative Veto: Macropolitical Conflict and the Legacy of Chadha
Michael J. Berry
Leadership Organizations in the House of Representatives: Party Participation
and Partisan Politics
Scott R. Meinke
Minority Parties in U.S. Legislatures: Conditions of Influence
jennifer hayes clark
Party Discipline in the U.S. House of Representatives
kathryn pearson
Partisan Gerrymandering and the Construction of American Democracy
erik j. engstrom
Ambition, Competition, and Electoral Reform: The Politics of Congressional
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Getting Primaried: The Changing Politics of Congressional Primary Challenges
robert g. boatright
ELECTORAL INCENTIVES
IN CONGRESS
Jamie L. Carson and Joel Sievert
University of Michigan Press
Ann Arbor
Copyright © 2018 by Jamie L. Carson and Joel Sievert
All rights reserved
This book may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, including illustrations, in any form
(beyond that copying permitted by Sections 107 and 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law and
except by reviewers for the public press), without written permission from the publisher.
Published in the United States of America by the
University of Michigan Press
Manufactured in the United States of America
c Printed on acid- free paper
2021 2020 2019 2018 4 3 2 1
A CIP catalog record for this book is available from the British Library.
Library of Congress Cataloging- in- Publication Data
Names: Carson, Jamie L., author. | Sievert, Joel, author.
Title: Electoral incentives in Congress / Jamie L. Carson and Joel Sievert.
Description: Ann Arbor : University of Michigan Press, 2018. | Series: Legislative politics
and policy making | Includes bibliographical references and index. | Identifiers: LCCN
2017057640 (print) | LCCN 2018002009 (ebook) | ISBN 9780472130795 (hardback :
alk. paper) | ISBN 9780472123759 (ebook)
Subjects: LCSH: United States. Congress— History— 19th century. | United States.
Congress— Elections. | Legislators— United States— History— 19th century. | BISAC:
POLITICAL SCIENCE / History & Theory. | POLITICAL SCIENCE / Government
/ General.
Classification: LCC JK1021 (ebook) | LCC JK1021 .C368 2018 (print) | DDC
324.973/05— dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2017057640
To Jamie Carson’s friends Tom and Mary Jane Clark
To Joel Sievert’s parents, Craig and Janet
Contents
List of Illustrations ix
Acknowledgments xi
ONE Introduction 1
TWO Contemporary and Historical Evidence for an
Electoral Connection 13
THREE Unpacking the Electoral Connection 25
with Jeffery A. Jenkins
FOUR Candidates and Competition in US House Races, 1820– 88 51
FIVE Nomination and Turnover Patterns in the US House 77
SIX Ballots, Election Timing, and the Personal Vote 101
SEVEN Electoral Accountability in US House Elections 121
EIGHT Reevaluating Electoral Incentives in Congress 151
Notes 159
References 171
Index 187
Illustrations
TABLES
4.1. Candidate emergence in Ohio and Pennsylvania, 1830– 52 60
4.2. Emergence of experienced candidates, 1840– 88 62
4.3. Democratic vote share, 1840– 88 66
4.4. Candidate recruitment advantage and voter turnout, 1840– 88 70
4.5. Effect of turnout on incumbent margin of victory 70
4.A1. Turnout in congressional districts, 1840– 88 74
4.A2. Incumbent margin of victory, 1840– 88 75
5.1. Effect of redistricting on seeking and winning reelection,
by decade 87
5.2. Probability that incumbent seeks reelection, 1820– 54 93
5.3. Number of former members of congress running
for the House, 1820– 88 97
6.1. Democratic vote share in presidential election years, 1840– 68 111
6.2. Democratic congressional vote by election type, 1840– 88 113
6.3. Ballot structure and incumbent party wins in presidential
election years 117
6.4. Gubernatorial coattails and incumbent party wins in midterm
election years 118
7.1. Incumbent congressional vote on the Tariff Act of 1872 132
7.2. Northern legislators’ vote proportions on the bills comprising
the Compromise of 1850, by constituency type 137
7.3. Votes on the Compromise of 1850, 31st Congress 139
