African Economic Outlook: 2015

400 Pages·2016·8.059 MB·English

by  Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

African Economic
Outlook 2016
SPECIAL THEME:
Sustainable Cities and Structural Transformation
Algeria
Angola
Benin
Botswana
Burkina Faso
Burundi
Cabo Verde
Cameroon
Central African Republic
Chad
Comoros
Congo
Congo, Dem. Rep.
Côte d’Ivoire
Djibouti
Egypt
Equatorial Guinea
Eritrea
Ethiopia
Gabon
Gambia
Ghana
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau ÉCOLE
Kenya
Lesotho
Liberia
Libya
Madagascar
Malawi
Mali
Mauritania
Mauritius
Morocco
Mozambique
Namibia
Niger
EDITION
Nigeria AFRICAN
Rwanda ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK
Sao Tome and Principe
Senegal
Seychelles
Sierra Leone
Somalia
South Africa
South Sudan
Sudan
Swaziland
Tanzania
Togo
Tunisia
Uganda
Zambia
Zimbabwe
AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT
BANK GROUP
African Economic Outlook
2016
SUSTAINABLE CITIES
AND STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION
The opinions expressed and arguments employed in this publication are the sole
responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the African
Development Bank, its Boards of Directors or the countries they represent; the OECD, its
Development Centre or their member countries; or the United Nations Development
Programme.
This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or
sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries
and to the name of any territory, city or area.
ISBN 978-92-64-25646-0 (print)
ISBN 978-92-64-25647-7 (PDF)
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/aeo-2016-en
Photo credits: Cover design by the Development Centre based on images © Brumarina, Nucleartist, ideyweb, Crystal
Home, A7880S, tovovan, quka/Shutterstock.com.
The front cover symbolises the dynamics of tomorrow’s African sustainable cities in an abstract way.
Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found on line at: www.oecd.org/about/publishing/corrigenda.htm.
© African Development Bank, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, United Nations
Development Programme (2016)
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Foreword
The African Economic Outlook (AEO) celebrates its 15th edition this year. The African
Development Bank, the OECD Development Centre and the United Nations Development
Programme partner to produce this annual report. A team of over 100 researchers,
economists, statisticians and other experts from Africa and other regions of the world
collaborate on the AEO.
The AEO analyses the present state of affairs in Africa, provides two-year forecasts
and addresses a special theme, supporting all with extensive data. The five chapters in
Part I cover economic and social aspects of the continent and allude to this year’s theme:
sustainable cities and structural transformation. Part II’s three chapters concentrate
solely on the theme, building on analysis from the African Economic Outlook 2015: Regional
Development and Spatial Inclusion. Country notes on each of Africa’s 54 countries constitute
Part III; their short version is produced here. For the first time, the statistical annex
includes a table on gender, comparing indicators from the three partner organisations.
The African Economic Outlook is available in various editions and formats.
For the AEO’s 15th anniversary, the partners have redesigned the website:
www.africaneconomicoutlook.org. The site is now easier to navigate and houses past
editions, in addition to the following:
• this report in English and French and an abridged version in Portuguese
• the full-length country notes in their original language and accompanying
individual tables and figures
• an overview of the report’s chapters with key figures by subregion, in English and
French.
© AfDB, OECD, UNDP 2016 African Economic Outlook 3

Editorial
Africa’s economic performance held firm in 2015, amid global headwinds and
regional shocks. Growth in real GDP is estimated at 3.6%, higher than the 3.1% for the
global economy and 1.5% for the euro area. Africa remained the world’s second fastest
growing economy after East Asia. In 2015, sub-Saharan Africa (excluding South Africa)
grew faster than the continental average, at 4.2%, with East Africa leading the way at
6.3%. Growth in Central, North and West Africa was above 3%, while Southern Africa
grew by an average of 2.2%. Looking ahead, average growth in Africa is expected to
remain moderate at 3.7% in 2016 but could accelerate to 4.5% in 2017. This forecast hinges
on the strength of the world economy and a gradual recovery in commodity prices.
In 2015, total external flows to Africa were estimated at USD 208 billion, with
remittances remaining the main contributor. Confirming the world’s positive outlook
on the continent, African governments have been able to tap into international capital
markets through sovereign bond issuances. However, due to global headwinds and some
country-specific risks, interest rates inched higher. The global economic environment
is affecting African countries differently. Revenues are dropping in resource-rich
countries, while oil importers are benefiting from lower inflation as well as less pressure
on current accounts. Amid tighter global financial conditions, some countries face large
fiscal deficits.
The resilience in Africa’s growth is partly owed to domestic factors, including
private consumption, public infrastructure development and private investment. In the
medium term, continued improvement in the business environment and fast expanding
regional markets may increasingly become new sources of growth for the continent. The
rise of intra-regional trade, in particular, illustrates growing opportunities for African
producers to diversify their trade. Africa also possesses significant potential for a
demographic dividend, spurred by the continent’s young population. However, to benefit
from this potential, governments must focus on putting in place and implementing the
right policies.
Turning Africa’s steady resilience into better lives for Africans requires strong policy
action to promote faster and more inclusive growth. Three out of every four Africans
still live under poor human conditions, compared to one in five globally. To achieve the
development objectives set by African institutions and the international community,
African countries must deepen structural and regulatory reforms, foster macroeconomic
stability, and tackle power supply bottlenecks in order to address the obstacles to the
transformation of their economies. Coupled with investment in social sectors, this will
open up more opportunities for youth and for women.
Africa’s ongoing, multi-faceted urban transition and the densification it produces
offer new opportunities for improving economic and social development while protecting
the environment. These can be better harnessed to achieve the Sustainable Development
Goals (SDGs) – especially SDG 11 on sustainable cities and communities – and the
objectives of the African Union’s Agenda 2063. The benefits could accrue to both urban
and rural dwellers, provided governments adopt an integrated approach. For instance,
connecting urban markets to rural economies could increase productivity of agriculture
and raise non-farm incomes. Accelerating investment in urban infrastructure is critical
to turn African cities and towns into engines of structural transformation at the local,
national and regional levels. In order to seize this “urbanisation dividend”, a number
of bold policy reforms are necessary. For example, national urban strategies must be
tailored to specific contexts, harness innovative financing instruments, and strengthen
ongoing efforts to promote efficient multi-level governance systems.
© AfDB, OECD, UNDP 2016 African Economic Outlook 5
EDitOriAl
In 2016, the emerging common African position on urban development and the
international New Urban Agenda provide the opportunity to discuss different options
and begin moulding ambitious urbanisation policies into concrete strategies for Africa’s
structural transformation.
This edition marks the 15th anniversary of the African Economic Outlook. It is our hope
that this report will continue to inform decisions and to stimulate a rich dialogue on the
way forward for Africa’s development.
Akinwumi Ayodeji Adesina Angel Gurría Helen Clark
President, Secretary-General, Administrator,
African Development Organisation for Economic United Nations
Bank Group, Co-operation and Development, Development Programme,
Abidjan Paris New York
6 African Economic Outlook © AfDB, OECD, UNDP 2016
Acknowledgements
The African Economic Outlook (AEO) was prepared by a consortium of three teams from
the African Development Bank (AfDB), the OECD Development Centre and the United
Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The Outlook benefited from the overall
guidance of Abebe Shimeles (Acting Director, Development Research Department,
AfDB), Mario Pezzini (Director, OECD Development Centre) and Ayodele Odusola (Chief
Economist and Head of the Strategic Advisory Unit, Regional Bureau for Africa, UNDP).
Willi Leibfritz was the Co-ordinator.
The AfDB team was led by Anthony Simpasa. Key team members included Zorobabel
T. Bicaba and Adeleke Oluwole Salami. The team at the OECD Development Centre was
led by Henri-Bernard Solignac-Lecomte, while the team at UNDP was led by Angela
Lusigi.
Part I on Africa’s performance and prospects was drafted by Willi Leibfritz, based
on the forecast provided by the AfDB Statistics Department (Chapter 1), Helmut Reisen,
Robert Kappel and Birte Pfeiffer (Chapter 2) who also contributed Box 1.1, Mouhamadou
Sy, Zorobabel T. Bicaba and Anthony Simpasa (Chapter 3), Angela Lusigi (Chapter 4)
and Bakary Traoré, Sébastien Markley, Anissa Bensaïd and Héloïse Daste (Chapter 5).
Chapters 2 and 3 benefited from data analysis by Bakary Traoré and Sébastien Markley.
Part II on sustainable cities and structural transformation was drafted by Arthur
Minsat with valuable assistance from Thang Nguyen, Héloïse Daste, Paula Misler,
Mmachukwu Oyeka, Lennart Ploen, Anissa Bensaïd, Luisa Freitas and Paula Rettl as well
as key input from Edgar Pieterse, Susan Parnell and Anton Cartwright (African Centre
for Cities).
In collaboration with the partner institutions and under the overall guidance of
the AfDB regional directors and lead economists, all AfDB country economists have
contributed to the country notes. In most cases, they collaborated with UNDP country
economists and/or Development Centre economists. The work on the country notes
greatly benefited from the valuable contributions of local consultants in selected
countries. The country notes were drafted by the people below.
Country Authors
Algeria Tarik Benbahmed, Hervé Lohoues and Mickaelle Chauvin
Angola Joel Muzima and Glenda Gallardo
Benin Daniel Ndoye, El Hadji Fall and Janvier P. Alofa
Botswana George J. Honde
Burkina Faso Tankien Dayo, Facinet Sylla, Amata Sangho Diabate and Hervé Marie Patrice Kouraogo
Burundi Joel Tokindang and Daniel Gbetnkom
Cabo Verde Adalbert Nshimyumuremyi and Anthony Simpasa
Cameroon Richard Antonin Doffonsou and Corneille Agossou
Central African Republic Kalidou Diallo
Chad Claude N’Kodia and Ali Madaï Boukar
Comoros Alassane Diabate and Attoumane Boina Issa
Congo Nouridine Kane Dia and Ginette Mondongou Camara
Congo, Dem. Rep. Jean Marie Vianney Dabire and Ernest Bamou
Côte d’Ivoire Pascal Yembiline, Idrissa Diagne, El Allassane Baguia and Bakary Traoré
Djibouti Guy Blaise Nkamleu
Egypt Prajesh Bhakta, Assitan Diarra-Thioune and Angus Downie
Equatorial Guinea Dominique Puthod and Domingos Mazivila
Eritrea Nyende Magidu and Luka Jovia Okumu
Ethiopia Admit Wondifraw Zerihun, James Wakiaga and Haile Kibret
6 African Economic Outlook © AfDB, OECD, UNDP 2016 © AfDB, OECD, UNDP 2016 African Economic Outlook 7
ACKNOWlEDGEMENtS
Country Authors
Gabon Dominique Puthod and Celestin Tsassa
Gambia Adalbert Nshimyumuremyi and Yemesrach Assefa Workie
Ghana Eline Okudzeto, Radhika Lal and Kordzo Sedegah
Guinea Olivier Manlan and Mamadou Bobo Sow
Guinea-Bissau Yannis Arvanitis, Francis Jony Andrianarison and Inacio Ie
Kenya Walter Odero, Wilmot Reeves and Julius Chokerah
Lesotho Edirisa Nseera and Asha P. Kannan
Liberia Patrick Hettinger and Janice Olivia James
Libya Kaouther Abderrahim-Ben Salah
Madagascar Simplice Zouhonbi, Tankien Dayo and Adamson Rasolofo
Malawi Peter Mwanakatwe and Alka Bhatia
Mali Becaye Diarra, Abdoulaye Konate and Hamaciré Dicko
Mauritania Marcellin Ndong Ntah, Isiyaka Sabo and Selma Cheikh Malainine
Mauritius Ndoli Kalumiya and Emmanuel Bor
Morocco Vincent Castel
Mozambique Andre Almeida Santos, Luca Monge Roffarello and Manuel Filipe
Namibia Martha Phiri and Fabian Mubiana
Niger Facinet Sylla and Bakary Dosso
Nigeria Barbara Barungi, Ojijo Odhiambo, Robert Asogwa and Alemu Zerihun
Rwanda Edward Batte Sennoga
Sao Tome and Principe Flavio Soares Da Gama and Idrissa Sanoussi
Senegal Toussaint Houeninvo, Khadidiatou Gassama and Souleman Boukar
Seychelles Tilahun Temesgen, Kim Harnack and Jacob Oduor
Sierra Leone Jamal Zayid, Moses Sichei and Milton Korseh-Hindowa
Somalia Richard Walker and Salome Kimani
South Africa Wolassa Lawisso Kumo, Osten Chulu and Arthur Minsat
South Sudan Guy Blaise Nkamleu and Frederick Mugisha
Sudan Suwareh Darbo and Yousif Eltahir
Swaziland Peninah Kariuki and Fatou Leigh
Tanzania Chidozie Emenuga, Rogers Dhliwayo and Prosper Charle
Togo Carpophore Ntagungira, Nicolas Kazadi and Jeanne Bougonou
Tunisia Philippe Trape and Kaouther Abderrahim
Uganda Alexis Rwabizambuga, Vera Kintu Oling, Tony Muhumuza and Simon Peter Nsereko
Zambia Peter Engbo Rasmussen, Colleen Zamba and Elda Chirwa
Zimbabwe Mary Manneko Monyau and Amarakoon Bandara
The committee of peer reviewers of the country notes included Adamon Ndungu,
Adeleke Salami, Amadou Boly, Anthony Simpasa, Audrey Chouchane, Bumi Camara,
Charlotte Karagueuzian, Cherif Diagne, Dawit Birhanu, El-Haji Mamadou Bah, Emelly
Mutambatsere, Eugene Bempong, Gilbert Galibaka, Jacob Oduor, Jacqueline Odula,
Jennifer Moyo, John Anyanwu, Kevin Lumbila, Linguere M. Mbaye, Mawuko Kokou
Kponnou, Mouhamadou Sy, Philip K. Quarcoo, Qingwei Meng, Sandrine Alissoutin,
Thierry Kangoye, Zeke Ger and Zorobabel Bicaba (AfDB); Betty Camara, Elizabeth Asiedu,
Sylvain Dessy, Eugenie Maiga, Una Osili, Jean-Michel Salmon, Peter Walkenhorst and
Lucia Wegner.
The macroeconomic framework and database used to produce the forecast and
statistical annex were managed by Koua Louis Kouakou and Chaouch Anouar at the
AfDB. Valuable statistical inputs for updating the database and running the AEO model
were provided by Chaouch Anouar, Koffi Dian Adou, Mbiya Kadisha, Soumaila Karambiri,
Doffou Marc Elisée Monsoh, Slaheddine Saidi, Stephane Regis Hauhouot, Amel Kchouk,
Slim Jerbi and Mustapha Bouzaine in the AfDB Statistics Department, under the guidance
of Charles Leyeka Lufumpa, Maurice Mubila, Koua Louis Kouakou and Nirina Letsara.
8 African Economic Outlook © AfDB, OECD, UNDP 2016
ACKNOWlEDGEMENtS
Bakary Traoré and Sébastien Markley assembled the final dataset for publication at the
OECD Development Centre. The project also benefited from the assistance provided by
Rhoda Bangurah, Amira Jlassi, Abiana Nelson and Elisabeth Turner.
The report benefited from extremely valuable inputs and comments from a large
number of African government representatives, private-sector operators, civil society
members, sector specialists in the AfDB country operations departments and field
offices, the UNDP Africa Regional Bureau and Country Offices, the Sahel and West Africa
Club and the OECD Development Centre, Centre for Tax Policy and Administration,
Development Co-operation Directorate, Directorate for Financial and Enterprise Affairs,
Public Governance and Territorial Development Directorate, Economics Department,
and Trade and Agriculture Directorate.
Part II on sustainable cities and structural transformation drew heavily from the
knowledge of international experts invited to the AEO 2016 experts’ meeting in Paris
on 8-9 October 2015: Yunzhong Liu (Development Research Center of the State Council
[People’s Republic of China]); Deborah Potts (King’s College London); Nathalie Delapalme
and Yannick Vuylsteke (Mo Ibrahim Foundation); François Paul Yatta (UCLGA); Javier
Sanchez-Reaza and Luc Christiaensen (World Bank); Remi Jedwab (George Washington
University); Susan Parnell (Department of Environmental and Geographical Sciences at
the University of Cape Town); Serge Allou (Cities Alliance); Jeanette Marie Manjengwa
(University of Zimbabwe); Felicity Proctor (Proctor Consulting Ltd.); Nick Godfrey
and Russell Bishop (New Climate Economy); Nicolas Ronderos (Consultant); Mariam
Yunusa (UN Habitat); Ronald Wall (IHS-Erasmus University Rotterdam / University of
the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg); Jean-Fabien Steck (Université Paris Ouest Nanterre);
Beacon Mbiba (Oxford Brookes University); Christel Alvergne (UNCDF); Kookie
Habtegaber (WWF); Jytte Agergaard (University of Copenhagen); Anthony Bigio (George
Washington University); Pierrick Hamon (Global Local Forum); Ambassador Dionisio
Pérez-Jácome Friscione (Representation of Mexico to the OECD); Irène Salenson (AFD);
Nora Selmet (International Energy Agency); William Tompson (OECD); Vikramdityasing
Bissoonauthsing (IRCC) and Wondimu Abeje (Wondimu Consult).
Annex 7.A1 was prepared by Ronald Wall (IHS-Erasmus University,
Rotterdam / University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg), with assistance by Dorcas
Nthoki, Marina Salimgareeva, Monserrat Budding-Polo Ballinas and Taslim Alade (IHS-
Erasmus University, Rotterdam). The results of this work form part of UN-Habitat’s
forthcoming “State of African Cities Report 2017” developed by Alioune Badiane, Jos
Maseland, Katharina Rochell (UN-Habitat) and Ronald Wall, with support from the AfDB
and the Department for International Development (DFID).
Rana Roy (Consultant), François Yatta (UCLGA), Ronald Wall (IHS-Erasmus University
Rotterdam / University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg) and Kookie Habtegaber
(WWF) contributed internal research papers. The WWF paper was drafted by Kookie
Habtegaber with input from: Laurent Some, Nigel Dudley, Aurélie Shapiro, Pablo
Izquierdo, Lars Erik Mangset, Stefano Esposito, Kiran Rajashekariah, Nyambe Nyambe,
Denis Landenbergue, Rod Taylor, Stuart Oor, Alexis Morgan, Valerie Burgener and Tabaré
A. Currás (WWF), Julia Pierini (BirdLife Zimbabwe), David Satterthwaite (International
Institute for Environment and Development), Shlomo (Solly) Angel (Marron Institute of
Urban Management, NYU), Stern Nathan Karres (The Nature Conservancy) and Mark
Swilling (Stellenbosch University).
Essential contributions to the thematic chapters were also made by José Tonato and
Clotilde Baï (AfDB); Marco Kamyia, Oyebanji Oyeyinka, Eduardo López Moreno, Regina
Orvananos, Mariam Yunusa and Gulelat Kebede (UN-Habitat); Edlam Abera Yemeru,
Semia Guermas Tapia and Sandra Zawedde (UNECA); William Cobbett, Rene Peter
8 African Economic Outlook © AfDB, OECD, UNDP 2016 © AfDB, OECD, UNDP 2016 African Economic Outlook 9