Presidential elections strategies and structures of American politics

335 Pages·2016·1.852 MB·English

by  Hopkins, David A.;Polsby, Nelson W.;Schier, Steven E.;Wildavsky, Aaron B

Presidential Elections

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
Strategies and Structures of
American Politics
FOURTEENTH EDITION
Nelson W. Polsby, Aaron Wildavsky,
Steven E. Schier, and David A. Hopkins
ROWMAN & LITTLEFIELD
Lanham • Boulder • New York • Toronto • Plymouth, UK
Published by Rowman & Littlefield
4501 Forbes Boulevard, Suite 200, Lanham, Maryland 20706
www.rowman.com
10 Thornbury Road, Plymouth PL6 7PP, United Kingdom
Copyright © 2016 by The Polsby Family Trust, Steven E. Schier, David A. Hopkins
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form or by any electronic or
mechanical means, including information storage and retrieval systems, without written permission
from the publisher, except by a reviewer who may quote passages in a review.
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Information Available
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Polsby, Nelson W.
Presidential elections : strategies and structures of American politics / Nelson W. Polsby, Aaron
Wildavsky, Steven E. Schier, and David A. Hopkins. — Fourteenth edition.
pages cm
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-1-4422-5365-0 (cloth : alk. paper) — ISBN 978-1-4422-5367-4 (pbk. : alk. paper) —
ISBN 978-1-4422-5366-7 (electronic) 1. Presidents—United States—Election. I. Wildavsky, Aaron B.
II. Schier, Steven E. III. Hopkins, David A. IV. Title.
JK528.P63 2016
324.973—dc23
™
The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of American National
Standard for Information Sciences—Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials, ANSI/
NISO Z39.48-1992.
Printed in the United States of America
By Nelson A. Polsby and Aaron Wildavsky—
To our grandchildren
Benjamin Polsby Stern
Eva Miriam Wildavsky
Aaron Alexander Wildavsky
Edward Polsby Stern
Saul Abraham Wildavsky
By Steven E. Schier—
To my family
Mary, Anna and Teresa Schier
By David A. Hopkins—
To my family and friends

CONTENTS | vii
Contents
Tables, Figures, and Boxes xi
Preface xiii
Part I
THE STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT 1
1 VOTERS 3
Why People Don’t Vote 3
Why People Do Vote: A Theory of Social Connectedness 8
Party Identification as Social Identity 10
Parties as Aggregates of Loyal Voters 11
Ideologies, Candidates, and Issues in the Minds of Voters 15
Changes in Party Identification: Social Habit versus
Contemporary Evaluation 19
A Central Strategic Problem: The Attentiveness of Voters 22
2 GROUPS 25
The Presidential Vote as an Aggregation of Interest Groups 25
Variations among Interest Groups 31
“Special” Interests, Campaign Spending, and Public Interest Groups 36
Political Parties as Organizations 41
Third Parties 46
vii
viii | CONTENTS
3 RULES AND RESOURCES 49
Rules: The Electoral College 49
Thinking about Resources 50
Resources: Money 50
The Beverly Hills Primary 51
Campaign Finance in Presidential Primaries 55
Raising and Spending Money in the General Election 57
Does Money Buy Elections? 58
Campaign Finance Reform 64
Resources: Control over Information 66
Newspapers 68
Television 72
The Internet and Other New Media 76
Incumbency as a Resource: The Presidency 79
Incumbency as a Liability: The Vice Presidency 81
The Balance of Resources 84
Part II
SEQUENCES 85
4 THE NOMINATION PROCESS 87
Before the Primaries 89
Iowa and New Hampshire: First in the Nation 94
1972 94
1976 95
1984 96
1992 96
2004 97
2008 98
2012 100
What Do These Historical Vignettes Teach? 101
State Primaries 102
State Caucuses 114
Superdelegates 116
The National Party Conventions 118
Party Delegates at the Conventions 119
CONTENTS | ix
The Convention as Advertising 122
The Vice Presidential Nominee 126
The Future of National Conventions 131
5 THE CAMPAIGN 135
The Well-Traveled Candidates 136
Persuading Voters 140
Economic Issues 141
Foreign Issues 143
Social Issues 145
Presentation of Self 146
Negative Campaigning 150
Getting Good Press 153
Campaign Professionals 156
Policy Advisers 160
Polling 163
Focus Groups 168
Television Advertising 170
New Media 173
Televised Debates 174
Getting Out the Vote 180
Campaign Blunders 182
Forecasting the Outcome 188
Counting the Vote 194
Part III
ISSUES 199
6 APPRAISALS 201
Reform upon Reform 201
The Political Theory of Policy Government 203
Reform by Means of Participatory Democracy 209
Some Specific Reforms 213
The Nomination Process 213
The Decline of the National Convention 216
The Electoral College 219
Party Platforms and Party Differences 226