DIPLOMATIC HISTORY T DIPLOMATIC HISTORY: T The Turkey-Armenia

139 Pages·2012·0.94 MB·English

220311 Columbia Cvr_Layout 1 2/28/12 11:21 AM Page 1
D
I
P
L
O
M
A
T
I
C

H
I
S
T
O
R
Y DIPLOMATIC HISTORY:
:

T
h
e

T The Turkey-Armenia Protocols
u
r
k
e
y
-
A
r
m
e
n
i
a

P
r
o
t
o
c
o
l
s
Institute for the Study of Human Rights Future of Diplomacy Project
Columbia University Belfer Center for Science and
91 Claremont Avenue, 7th Floor International Affairs
New York, NY 10027 Harvard Kennedy School
79 JFK Street, Cambridge, MA 02138
David L. Phillips
http://hrcolumbia.org http://www.belfercenter.org March 2012
P
h
illip
s
220311 Columbia Cvr_Layout 1 2/28/12 11:21 AM Page 2
© David L. Phillips
David L. Phillips, Director of the Program on Peace-building and Rights
Institute for the Study of Human Rights
Columbia University
91 Claremont Avenue, 7th Floor
New York, NY 10027
http://hrcolumbia.org
DIPLOMATIC HISTORY:
The 2009 Protocol on the Establishment
of Diplomatic Relations between the
Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Turkey
and
The 2009 Protocol on the Development
of Bilateral Relations between the
Republic of Turkey and the Republic of Armenia
By David L. Phillips
Institute for the Study of Human Rights
in collaboration with the
Future of Diplomacy Project, Harvard Kennedy School

The Institute for the Study of Human Rights (ISHR) was the first academic
center in the world to be founded on an interdisciplinary commitment to the
study of human rights. ISHR also bridges the study and practice of human
rights on both a national and international level. It promotes dialogue
between scholars and practitioners through human rights research, educa-
tion, lectures, conferences, and capacity-building activities. ISHR is currently
the largest human rights program for graduate studies in the United States.
The Future of Diplomacy Project at the Belfer Center for Science and
International Affairs is dedicated to promoting the study and understanding
of diplomacy, negotiation, and statecraft in international politics. The Project
aims to build the Harvard Kennedy School’s ability to teach in this area, sup-
port research in modern diplomatic practice, and build public understanding
of diplomacy’s indispensable role in an increasingly complex and globalized
world. The Project redefines diplomacy in a modern context through the lens
of leading practitioners who are engaged in innovative means of conflict pre-
vention and resolution at the negotiation table and beyond.
The author has been extensively involved in Turkish-Armenian issues
since 1999. This monograph draws on the author’s discussions with Turkish
and Armenian officials directly involved in negotiations, as well as Swiss and
U.S. mediators. Interviews were also conducted with Turkish and Armenian
scholars, analysts, think tank representatives, and media in Turkey and
Armenia. The monograph is further informed by workshops organized by
Columbia University and the Future of Diplomacy Project at the Harvard
Kennedy School.

Contents
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1
History . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3
Stakeholders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5
Contact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15
Joint History Commission . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21
Swiss Mediation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27
Freedom of Expression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33
Hrant Dink . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35
International Response . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .39
Football Diplomacy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41
U.S. Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45
Initials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .47
Azerbaijan’s Reaction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .49
Ergenekon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .53
Signing Ceremony . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .55
The Protocols . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .59
A Partnership at Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .63
The Constitutional Court . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .67
Ratification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .71
War—A Bad Option . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .73
Nuclear Summit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .75
Suspension . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .77
Silent Diplomacy? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .81
Civil Society at Work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .83
Recent Developments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .87
Centennial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .95
Epilogue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .99
The Way Forward . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .103
Appendix A: Acronyms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .109
Appendix B: Protocol on the Establishment of Diplomatic
Relations between the Republic of Armenia and the
Republic of Turkey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .110
vi Diplomatic History: The Turkey-Armenia Protocols
Appendix C: Protocol on the Development of Bilateral
Relations between the Republic of Turkey and the Republic
of Armenia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .112
Appendix D: Timetable and Elements for the Implementation
of the Protocol on Development of Relations between
the Republic of Turkey and the Republic of Armenia . . . . . .114
About the Author . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .115
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .117
Introduction
The Protocol on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations and the Protocol
on the Development of Bilateral Relations between the Republic of Armenia
and the Republic of Turkey (hereafter called “the Protocols”) were signed on
October 10, 2009. The Protocols represented an unprecedented advancement
in relations between Turkey and Armenia. However, failure to ratify them
was a significant bilateral, regional, and international setback.
This monograph is a diplomatic history of events leading up to the
signing of the Protocols. It assesses the work of Turkish and Armenian diplo-
mats negotiating the Protocols and the role of Swiss mediation, as well as the
positions of the United States, France, Russia, and Iran. The monograph eval-
uates ensuing problems, including conditions imposed on ratification, as well
as the effect of domestic politics in Turkey and Armenia on normalization.
Turkish-Armenian relations are also considered in regional context. The
Middle East is in the midst of transformation, with Turkey playing a central
role. Turkey is involved in the troubled transitions of Egypt and Libya, and at
odds with Syria and Iran. Other regional issues, such as the Nagorno-
Karabakh (NK) conflict, Cyprus, and relations with Armenia are stalemated.
At present, Armenia is not a foreign policy priority for Ankara.
The Protocols may be dormant, yet they still provide a roadmap to the
way forward. Studying the history of Turkish-Armenian rapprochement
serves as the basis for specific recommendations provided in this monograph
aimed at (i) intensifying civil society activities, (ii) expanding commercial
cooperation, and (iii) stimulating intergovernmental contact. These pages are
more than a record of historical events. Lessons can also be applied to con-
flict resolution efforts in other countries facing similar challenges.
1