Bo Andersson

14 Pages·2015·2.81 MB·English

by  Julie Gerstner

Bo Andersson
CEO
AvtoVAZ
AVTOVAZ
The Russian Automotive Industry Today & Tomorrow
Bo Inge Andersson
President & CEO of AVTOVAZ
ТВОЙ ГОД
ТВОЕ БУДУЩЕЕ
10 June 2015
Current Macroeconomic Situation
• Global Oil Prices have fallen by over 50 %
1
• In Q1 2015 Russian Income from oil export reduced by 43.5%
• Imposed Sanctions on Russia from the West
2
• In 2015 estimated affect can reach 75 B-EURO or 4.8% of GDP
• RUB Rate has plunged vs. EUR and USD
3
• In Q1 2015 EUR/RUB and USD/RUB grew up to 90-100%
•4 Cost of Borrowing has increased substantially
• In 2014 key interest rate was increased by Russian central bank from 5.5% to 17.0%.
Current rate is 12.5%
• Increasing Inflation and Russian Recession
5
• Annual Inflation in May was 15.8%
• GDP decrease in Q1 2015 is 2.2%, annual forecast is -2.5 to -5.0%
3
Passenger Vehicles Market Outlook
• AVTOVAZ forecast the Market to drop by 32-36% in 2015 vs. 2014
M-units
3.10
3.00
3.0 2.90
2.8
2.77
2.7 2.90
2.68
2.6 2.60 2.80
2.55
2.5 2.70
2.5 2.4 2.58
2.4
2.52
2.46
2.20 2.40
2.0 2.10
1.85
1.8 1.8
1.59
1.70
1.5 1.4 1.4
1.3 1.50
1.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Actual Optimistic Forecast Pessimistic Forecast
4
Who we are 2015
Leading Manufacturer
585,000
of vehicles in Russia
Cars & CKD
Own Brand Name LADA
Market Share in Russia
18.7%
(4M 2015)
Market Share in
51%
<600 k-RUB segment
Dealer Network in
336
Russia
dealers
29
Export
countries
Controlling
Alliance Rostec Auto B.V., a part of
Shareholder Alliance Renault-Nissan
Headquarters Togliatti, Russia
5
The Russian Automotive Industry
Majority of Russian plants have problems being cost competitive due to
low production capacities
k-units / year
Production Capacities of Russian Plants
1000
910
900
800
700
600
500
400
300 Typical plant in other Markets
300
200 190 175 200 – 400 k-units / year
200 150 150
120 110 100 100
75 75 75
100 50
0
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P
6
Alliance Market Share 2014 and 2015
LADA and the Alliance are gaining market share in Russia
40%
37.1% 37.4% 36.8%
34.7% 34.6% 35.0%
2.4% 2.6% 34.2%
35% 2.8%
32.8% 33.1% 33.1%
32.3% 32.2%
31.0% 31.0% 31.3% 30.6% 30.9% 2.6% 2.0%
30% 6.3% 6.0% 1.9% 2.0% 7.7% 6.5% 6.6%
7.6% 6.6% 5.3%
8.7% 5.5% 6.3% 5.3% 8.1%
7.5% 6.8% 7.2%
8.0%
25%
7.1%
8.2%
8.3% 7.4% 7.9%
8.2%
8.4%
8.0%
20% 8.8% 8.4% 7.1% 8.6% 8.8% 7.5% 7.9%
8.8%
7.5%
15%
10% 17.2% 17.8% 19.6% 19.0% 19.3% 20.7% 18.3% 19.2%
16.2% 15.6% 16.0% 16.0% 16.3% 16.3% 15.7%
14.1% 14.0%
5%
0%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
2014 2015
LADA Renault Nissan Datsun Infiniti
7
TOP-10 Russian Automotive Market 5M 2015
5 out of TOP 10 cars are produced by AVTOVAZ
4 out of TOP 10 cars are LADA branded
Granta 1 5.0%
Solaris 4.5%
Rio 3.4%
Kalina 2 1.9%
Largus 3 1.8%
Duster 1.7%
4x4 4 1.7%
Logan 1.7%
Polo 1.6%
Camry 1.2%
8
Improved LADA Customer Opinions
Overall Opinion by Brands in 2011-2015 Overall Opinion by Models in 2014
7.0
6.9
8 6.8 6.7
6.6
7 6.4 6.3
6.2
6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0
6 6.0 5.9 6.0
5.8 6.0
5.9
5.8
5.9
5.6 5.8
5 5.6 5.7
4.4 5.6
5.4
4.6
5.3
4 3.7 3.7 5.2 5.3
3.5 5.2
5.0
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014
3
2011 2012 2013 2014 1Q'2015
LADA Largus LADA 4х4 LADA Granta LADA Priora LADA Kalina
9
Key Priorities in 2015
•1 Launch Vesta & XRAY on time, with right Quality and Cost
•2 Restructure the Supply Base
•3 Continue to Change Management Culture to Drive Continuous
Improvements
•4 Improve Customer Satisfaction
•5 Improve Quality in Engineering, Purchased Parts and Production
•6 Reduce Cost in all Business Areas
10